Norway
Everything Palanor holds about Norway, in one place: 244 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeOECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $530.8 billion (2025); 96th percentile since 1960; highest since 2022; 1y +6.0%.
- Real GDP growth: 1.09% (2025); 13th percentile since 1961; 1y −0.33 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 3.04% (2025); 46th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.14 pts.
- Unemployment: 4.64% (2025); 76th percentile since 1991; highest since 2016; 1y +0.64 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 42.5% of GDP (2025); 32nd percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +1.43 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 11.7% of GDP (2025); 51st percentile since 1990; lowest since 2020; 1y −1.49 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 1.31% of companies (2026-10-21); 42nd percentile since Dec 2021; 1y −0.32 pts.
Country Posture
What Norway’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 1.1 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -0.9 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.6 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.6 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202566Deep buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by governance (wgi mean) (up) and current account (down) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 1.6 | 70 |
| Budget balance (2024) | 13.6 | 81 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 4.4 | 41 |
| Current account | 14.1 | 80 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 1.70 | 63 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 3.0 |
| Change in inflation | -0.1 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -3.3% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 1.08 |
| Private credit, three-year change (2024) | -8.4 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | -0.3 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Norway is in its cycles
Where Norway sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption99% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Low stationary99% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Deleveraging73% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Mature creditor55% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Commodity-reliant65% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Low89% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Affluent99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term97% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2021-102026-10
Passport reach
Where a Norway passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Norway itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
35.8%rank 16 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 5 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Norway’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 42.5% of GDP, government consumption 22.6%, investment 23.2% and net exports +11.7% (exports 45.4%, imports 33.7%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Norway
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 530.1 | 651.7 | 646.5 | 656.2 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 626.2 | 657.3 | 687.0 | 774.7 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 94,360 | 115,188 | 113,474 | 111,995 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | 14.2 | 20.7 | 17.4 | 14.4 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 54.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 26.0 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | -160.4 | -152.5 | -161.2 | -177.2 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | 10.6 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 5.7 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | -4.9 | -4.7 | -3.5 | -1.6 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Norway
6 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Norway on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
News
In the news
- Trump attacks Nobel committee after peace prize decision
Trump disparaged 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner Navi Pillay and called the award a 'stain' on Norway during a New York rally.
Palanor Wire2026-10-10neutral · -attacks +peace
- Trump attacks Norway over Nobel Peace Prize decision
Trump called Norway's decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize an "indelible stain" while also expressing doubt he would receive it.
Palanor Wire2026-10-10neutral · -attacks +peace
- Norway plans ban on smart glasses in public spaces
Norway plans to temporarily ban AI glasses in parks, schools and other venues while developing permanent rules, amid global privacy concerns.
Palanor Wire2026-10-06negative · -ban
- Norway to propose temporary ban on AI glasses
Norway plans to temporarily prohibit AI glasses in public places over privacy concerns.
Palanor Wire2026-10-05negative · -ban
- Norway's Gas Production Plunges 12.6% as Europe Heads into Winter
OilPrice.com2026-10-20negative · -plunges
- Norway to receive Chunmoos in 2028, reach IOC in 2029: Norwegian army leader
Breaking Defense2026-10-20neutral
- Norway targets 'harmful' social media, games with under-16 ban reut.rs/4ytwG8a
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-19negative · -ban
- Vietnam signs free-trade pact with European countries including Norway, Switzerland reut.rs/4ylpDOR
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-18neutral
- Norway's Untapped Oil and Gas Frontier Is Drawing Renewed Interest
OilPrice.com2026-10-16neutral
- Norway's $2 trillion wealth fund was frozen out of major defense companies. That may be about to change
CNBC · Bluesky2026-10-16neutral
- Norway's wealth fund set to overhaul ethical rules after US scrutiny reut.rs/3Wbtj8x
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-15neutral
- Norway police arrest five in bribery probe over supplying services to NATO ships reut.rs/4zs1wiw
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-14negative · -probe
- Switzerland, Norway, Vietnam to sign free trade deal on Sunday, officials say reut.rs/4hK9vBA
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-14positive · +deal
- Norway fines Microsoft's Xandr $9.6 million over Grindr data sharing reut.rs/47gSSr5
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-12neutral
Headlines that name Norway, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Norway
Palanor’s company graph holds 205 entities headquartered here, 2 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
- EQUINOR ASAEQNR · Stavanger
- YARA INTERNATIONAL ASAYARIY · OSLO
Signals
Every series about Norway
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 244 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 56
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Norwayrecord high since 1; 1y +0.9%5,458,290 people2022
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): Norwayrecord high since 1820; 1y +2.4%88,3662022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Norwayrecord high since 1820; 1y +3.3%482.32022
- Norway · GDP · USD bn (current)96th percentile since 1960; highest since 2022; 1y +6.0%$530.8bn2025
- Norway · Real GDP Growth · % y/y13th percentile since 1961; 1y −0.33 pts1.09%2025
- Norway · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP33rd percentile since 1970; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.0574 pts1.64% of GDP2025
- Norway · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDP67th percentile since 1970; lowest since 2020; 1y −1.51 pts34.5% of GDP2025
- Norway · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDP10th percentile since 1970; highest since 2020; 1y +0.348 pts6.12% of GDP2025
- Norway · Services Value Added · % of GDP65th percentile since 1970; highest since 2020; 1y +1.53 pts55% of GDP2025
- Norway · Country Strength13th percentile since 1990; highest since 2022; 1y +1.2%74 index2025
Prices4 of 6
- Norway Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +3.4%143.2 index2026-09-01
- Norway Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)75th percentile since Jan 2011; highest since Apr 2026; 1y −0.22 pts3.38% y/y2026-09-01
- Norway Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −3.3%76.42026-09-01
- Norway · Inflation · CPI % y/y46th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.14 pts3.04%2025
Jobs and people at work7 of 8
- Norway · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)66th percentile since Jan 1989; 1y −0.4 pts4.5% of labour force2026-08-01
- Norway Unemployment Rate (Monthly, Eurostat)83rd percentile since Jan 2000; 1y −0.4 pts4.5%2026-08-01
- Norway — Avg annual hours worked per worker5th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.7%1,412.1 hours/year2023-06-30
- Average annual hours worked · Norwayrecord low since 1990; 1y −0.2%1,385.7 hours2025
- Norway · Female Labor Force Participation · %35th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2001; 1y −0.2 pts62.1%2025
- Norway · Male Labor Force Participation · %7th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.26 pts69.1%2025
- Norway · Unemployment Rate · %76th percentile since 1991; highest since 2016; 1y +0.64 pts4.64%2025
Money, rates and credit3 of 4
- Norway · Central Bank Policy Rate (IMF)44th percentile since Jan 1982; highest since Aug 2025; 1y −0.25 pts4.25%2026-05-01
- Norway 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Monthly)50th percentile since Jan 1985; highest since Sep 2008; 1y +0.47 pts4.41%2026-09-01
- Norges Bank Total Assets · % of Norway GDP51st percentile since Oct 1960; lowest since Oct 2023; 1y −1.36 pts16.8% of GDP2025-10-01
Stock market and listed companies2
- Norway Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)record high since Jan 1986; 1y +32.6%379.12026-09-01
- Norway Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)79th percentile since Jan 1987; highest since May 2026; 1y +15.14 pts32.6% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 21
- Norway · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)80th percentile since 1972; lowest since 2021; 1y −18.8%13.6 pct_gdp2024
- Norway · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)25th percentile since 1972; highest since 2010; 1y +0.61 pts1.64%2024
- Norway · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)22nd percentile since 1972; highest since 2011; 1y +0.68 pts1.56%2023
- Norway · Cyclically Adjusted Balance (IMF)record low since 1980; 1y −1.79 pts-11.6% of potential GDP2025
- Norway · Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (IMF)record low since 1980; 1y −3.80 pts-17.8% of potential GDP2025
- Norway · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)83rd percentile since 1980; highest since 2020; 1y +1.74 pts24.1% of GDP2024
- Norway · 10-Year Government Bond Yield · annual avg46th percentile since 1990; highest since 2009; 1y +0.37 pts3.95%2025
- Norway · Budget Balance · % GDP63rd percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −18.5%10.4 pct_gdp2025
- Norway · Government Spending · % GDP78th percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +3.7%49.5 pct_gdp2025
- Norway · Net Interest · % GDPrecord low since 1990; 1y −0.213-3.54 pct_gdp2025
Trade and capital flows8 of 9
- Norway's Share of Foreign-Held U.S. Treasuries97th percentile since Jan 2003; highest since Apr 2026; 1y −0.03 pts2.29% of foreign holdings2026-08-01
- U.S. Treasury Securities Held in Norway97th percentile since Jan 2003; highest since Apr 2026; 1y −0.4%214 $ billions2026-08-01
- Norway's Share of Foreign-Held U.S. Equities · %92nd percentile since Sep 2011; lowest since Mar 2026; 1y +0.005 pts4.2% of foreign holdings2026-08-01
- U.S. Equities Held in Norway · USD bnrecord high since Sep 2011; 1y +23.1%1,056.6 $ billions2026-08-01
- Norway · Net International Investment Position (IMF)record high since Jan 2012; 1y +19.8%$2,299.3bn2026-04-01
- Norway · Current Account · % GDP81st percentile since 1975; lowest since 2020; 1y −6.3%14.1 pct_gdp2025
- Norway · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)record high since 1980; 1y +49.36 pts393.3% of GDP2025
- Norway · Tourism Intensity: Nights per Resident (annual)record high since 1990; 1y +4.4%7.262025
Energy and resources10 of 22
- Crude Oil Production · Norway60th percentile since Jan 1973; 1y +9.3%1,842.62026-06-01
- Norway · Business Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWh91st percentile since Jul 2007; highest since Jul 2022; 1y +42.2%0.15 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Norway · Household Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWh84th percentile since Jul 2007; highest since Jan 2024; 1y +0.4%0.2 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Norway · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation12th percentile since 2000; 1y unchanged0.15% of generation2025
- Norway · Carbon Intensity of Electricity37th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2021; 1y −5.1%28.1 gCO2e/kWh2025
- Norway · Coal Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y unchanged0% of generation2025
- Norway · Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +2.4%160.9 TWh2025
- Norway · Gas Share of Electricity Generation40th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.36 pts0.58% of generation2025
- Norway · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation13th percentile since 2000; highest since 2021; 1y +1.18 pts90% of generation2025
- Norway · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation58th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.03 pts0.43% of generation2025
Conflict and geopolitics4 of 10
- Norway · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean28th percentile since 1996; 1y +0.4%1.7 index2025
- Norway · Political Stability · WGI20th percentile since 1996; highest since 2020; 1y +12.9%1.08 index2025
- Norway · Regulatory Quality · WGI31st percentile since 1996; lowest since 2022; 1y −2.6%1.59 index2025
- Norway · Rule of Law · WGI54th percentile since 1996; 1y +0.2%1.94 index2025
Defence1
- Norway defence spending — % of GDP (OECD COFOG)82nd percentile since 1995; highest since 1999; 1y +24.1%2.14 pct of GDP2024
Aid in and out2
- Norway · Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance) · US$ billionsrecord high since 2015; 1y +9.4%5.67 US$ billions2025
- Norway · ODA as % of GNI63rd percentile since 2018; 1y +0.01 pts1.03% of GNI2025
Migration5 of 7
- First Residence Permits Issued to U.S. Citizens · Norway42nd percentile since 2008; highest since 2022; 1y +20.3%1,3032025
- International Migrant Stock: Norway (UN)record high since 19901,012,404 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Norway (UN)record high since 199018.2% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Norway (UN)record high since 199020,746 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Norway (UN)11.62024
AI stance and technology3 of 5
- Global Innovation Index Rank: Norway1y +5.0%21 rank2026
- Global Innovation Index Score: Norway1y −1.4%48.5 score (0–100)2026
- AI User Share: Norway (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +4.10 pts49.4% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
Climate and the physical world4
- Norway · Arable Land · % of land26th percentile since 1961; 1y +0.01 pts2.21% of land area2024
- Norway · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.9%70,0002022
- Norway · Forest Area · % of land24th percentile since 1990; 1y unchanged33.3%2024
- Norway · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −5.2%6.06 µg/m³2020
Health and living standards10 of 13
- Norway · Life Expectancy at Birth · years96th percentile since 1960; highest since 2021; 1y +0.2%83.2 years2024
- Norway · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Norway · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.3%0.97 index2023
- Norway · Antidepressants: Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord high since 1999; 1y +3.2%67.42025
- Norway · Anxiolytics (Anti-Anxiety Drugs): Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord low since 1999; 1y −3.7%10.52025
- Norway · Sleeping Pills (Hypnotics and Sedatives): Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord high since 1999; 1y +2.6%55.92025
- Norway · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of population38th percentile since 1979; 1y −0.1 pts0.2%2023
- Norway · Basic Drinking Water Access · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Norway · Safely Managed Drinking Water · % of populationrecord low since 2000; 1y −0.03 pts99.1%2024
- Norway · Undernourishment · % of populationrecord high since 2001; 1y unchanged2.5%2024
Sentiment and attention1
- Norway · Search Attention95th percentile since Sep 2021; 1y +25.0%10 index2026-09-20
More about this country2 of 18
- Norway · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)98th percentile since Dec 1950; lowest since Jan 2026; 1y −1.1%$89.3bn2026-09-01
- Norway · Exchange Rate per US Dollar (IMF)93rd percentile since Jan 1957; 1y −7.5%9.43 per USD2026-08-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City