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PalanorPalanor

Uruguay

Everything Palanor holds about Uruguay, in one place: 143 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

South AmericaAmericasLatin America & Caribbean

The latest read

Country Posture

What Uruguay’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth1.8
Growth against its three-year average-1.1
Change in unemployment-0.7
Change in the employment rate0.4
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

67Deep buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and current account (up) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)6.963
Budget balance (2024)-3.138
Reserves, months of imports8.677
Current account-0.564
Governance (WGI mean)1.0789
External debt——

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation4.7
Change in inflation-0.2
Currency move against the dollar2.4%
Conflict deaths per million0.0
Political stability1.30
Private credit, three-year change4.4
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where Uruguay is in its cycles

Where Uruguay sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    Drive to maturity97% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Declining56% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Debt cycle stage

    Early cycle88% · 2025

    Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

  • External balance stage

    Debt repayer63% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Diversifying50% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Low79% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Affluent98% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2020-012026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a Uruguay passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Uruguay itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

52.7%

rank 52 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 42 destinations in full.

Work

10.6%

rank 91 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 1 destination in full, 8 at half.

Live

1.9%

rank 38 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 1 destination in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2025-06-01China · visit: Visa required → Visa-free source
  • 2025-01-08United Kingdom · visit: Visa-free → Online travel authorisation source
  • 2024-11-22Portugal (working holiday) · work: no route → Working holiday source
  • 2024-01-31United Kingdom · work: no route → Working holiday source

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Uruguay passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 52.7% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Uruguay’s economy runs on

In 2015, household spending was 66.8% of GDP, government consumption 13.8%, investment 19.7% and net exports -0.4% (exports 22.5%, imports 22.9%).

What Uruguay's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearTotal 100.0% in 2015 · 2015
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Uruguay

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%1.81.32.42.2
Inflation, average consumer prices%4.74.04.54.5
Unemployment rate% of labor force7.57.57.57.5
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn85.695.2100.5118.4
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn129.7135.8143.4168.6
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$24,54927,33928,92334,185
Current account balance% of GDP-0.5-0.9-1.0-1.5
Government gross debt% of GDP65.667.768.769.2
Government net debt% of GDP56.859.060.160.6
Government overall balance% of GDP-3.4-4.1-3.4-2.1
Government primary balance% of GDP-1.3-2.1-1.20.4
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.2.12.02.12.5
Uruguay: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 1.8% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Uruguay: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 66% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

Uruguay: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 1.8% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
Uruguay: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10051.6 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-09-28: 7 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-05: 15 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-12: 15 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-19: 4 headlines, net tone 0.00
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Uruguay, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Uruguay

Palanor’s company graph holds 24 entities headquartered here, 1 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about Uruguay

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 143 in the Library.

Growth and output8 of 30

Prices1 of 3

Jobs and people at work3 of 4

Government and debt8

Trade and capital flows2 of 3

Energy and resources1 of 5

Conflict and geopolitics4 of 10

Migration4 of 6

AI stance and technology1 of 3

Climate and the physical world6 of 8

Health and living standards10 of 11

Sentiment and attention1

Peers

Elsewhere in South America

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

ArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaEcuadorFalkland IslandsFrench GuianaGuyanaParaguayPeruSurinameVenezuela

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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