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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

Guatemala

Everything Palanor holds about Guatemala, in one place: 51 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

North AmericaAmericasLatin America & Caribbean

The latest read

Country Posture

What Guatemala’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth4.3
Growth against its three-year average0.5
Change in unemployment-0.0
Change in the employment rate-0.1
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

69Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by governance (wgi mean) (down) and reserves, months of imports (up) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)12.539
Budget balance (2024)-0.978
Reserves, months of imports9.393
Current account4.788
Governance (WGI mean)-0.6048
External debt (2024)24.278

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation1.5
Change in inflation-1.4
Currency move against the dollar-1.0%
Conflict deaths per million2.0
Political stability-0.21
Private credit, three-year change0.6
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Passport reach

Where a Guatemala passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Guatemala itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

35.2%

rank 78 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 39 destinations in full.

Work

0.0%

rank 114 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2025-01-08United Kingdom · visit: Visa-free → Online travel authorisation source

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Guatemala passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 35.2% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Guatemala’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 87.2% of GDP, government consumption 11.5%, investment 16.8% and net exports -15.4% (exports 15.6%, imports 31.0%).

What Guatemala's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearTotal 100.0% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Guatemala

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.0 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%4.34.03.83.9
Inflation, average consumer prices%1.63.04.14.0
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn123.3132.3143.0194.2
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn284.0305.1326.7410.4
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$6,5996,9807,4449,581
Current account balance% of GDP4.73.63.10.3
Government gross debt% of GDP26.727.528.430.6
Government overall balance% of GDP-1.9-2.6-3.0-2.7
Government primary balance% of GDP-0.3-1.0-1.3-0.8
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.1.61.71.71.9
Guatemala: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 4.3% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Guatemala: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 27% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in GuatemalaDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate38 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-09-28: 5 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-05: 6 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-12: 9 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-19: 7 headlines, net tone 0.00
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Guatemala, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Guatemala

Palanor’s company graph holds 6 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about Guatemala

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 51 in the Library.

Growth and output1

Money, rates and credit1

Trade and capital flows1

Conflict and geopolitics2 of 6

Migration1 of 3

AI stance and technology1

Health and living standards4

Peers

Elsewhere in North America

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AnguillaAntigua and BarbudaArubaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBermudaCanadaCayman IslandsCosta RicaCubaCuraçaoDominicaDominican RepublicEl SalvadorGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeHaitiHondurasJamaicaMartiniqueMexicoMontserratNicaraguaPanamaPuerto RicoSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Pierre and MiquelonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSint MaartenTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos IslandsUnited StatesVirgin IslandsVirgin Islands

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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