El Salvador
Everything Palanor holds about El Salvador, in one place: 54 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
North AmericaAmericasLatin America & Caribbean
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $36.7 billion (2025); record high since 1990; 1y +5.2%.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 81.3% of GDP (2025); 7th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −1.00 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -24.1% of GDP (2025); 10th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −3.70 pts.
Country Posture
What El Salvador’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 3.9 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 0.9 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.0 |
| Change in the employment rate | 0.2 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202530Thin buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by current account (down) and reserves, months of imports (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 14.3 | 16 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -2.1 | 53 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 2.4 | 20 |
| Current account | -3.5 | 41 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.38 | 33 |
| External debt (2024) | 75.4 | 13 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 0.3 |
| Change in inflation | -0.6 |
| Currency move against the dollar | 0.0% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 0.11 |
| Private credit, three-year change | 1.8 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a El Salvador passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside El Salvador itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
0.0%rank 114 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.
El Salvador grants citizenship for a set investment
- Naturalisation for investors/donors under government programmes (Ley Especial de Migración y de Extranjería Art. 156(5), Decreto 918/2023) — 'Freedom Visa' citizenship · OpenGovernment minimum — for one person (agent fees excluded).
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What El Salvador’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 81.3% of GDP, government consumption 16.4%, investment 26.3% and net exports -24.1% (exports 32.0%, imports 56.1%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for El Salvador
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 1.2 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 36.7 | 39.4 | 41.8 | 51.1 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 89.7 | 96.9 | 104.0 | 127.6 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 5,751 | 6,124 | 6,453 | 7,682 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -3.5 | -4.8 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 87.6 | 85.0 | 89.2 | 80.3 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -2.9 | -2.3 | -7.7 | -1.6 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 4.8 | 5.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Costa Rica opens Bukele-inspired mega-prison
Costa Rica opened a 5,100-inmate maximum security prison modeled on El Salvador's approach as part of an intensified fight against organized crime.
Palanor Wire2026-10-15neutral
- No AI infrastructure signal in this cluster
Ebola outbreak tracking, wildfire resource allocation, and El Salvador constitutional maneuvering carry no model-layer or capex relevance.
Palanor Wire2026-07-15neutral
- El Salvador says Haiti gangs holding 4 force members hostage, announces new rescue mission reut.rs/3WFwQft
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- Bukele, libera presos en El Salvador: “Ingresarán al plan ‘Cero Ocio’ para salir reformados y que no se vuelvan más criminales”
La Nación (Argentina)2026-10-19neutral
- El Salvador's Bukele says Spain's Cox Energy to invest $2.9 billion reut.rs/4hLdDRW
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-14positive · +invest
- El Salvador’s dictator has put chatbots in schools and created what he calls “the best medical system in the world”. Now he needs another success story
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-01neutral
- Bolillo Gómez se comparó con un DT argentino y pidió que lo echen de El Salvador, pero lo respaldaron
La Nación (Argentina)2026-10-01neutral
- Confirman elecciones 2027 en El Salvador y Bukele podría ser reelegido en una votación que EE.UU. mira de cerca
La Nación (Argentina)2026-10-01neutral
- El Salvador’s dictator has put chatbots in schools and created what he calls “the best medical system in the world”. Now he needs another success story
The Economist · Bluesky2026-09-30neutral
Headlines that name El Salvador, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in El Salvador
Palanor’s company graph holds 7 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about El Salvador
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 54 in the Library.
Growth and output1
- El Salvador · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1990; 1y +5.2%$36.7bn2025
Trade and capital flows1
- El Salvador · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)35th percentile since 1996; 1y +0.644 pts-59.9% of GDP2025
Conflict and geopolitics2 of 6
- El Salvador · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
- El Salvador · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
Migration1 of 3
- U.S.-Born People Living in El Salvador (UN)69th percentile since 1990; highest since 19955,562 people2024
AI stance and technology1
- AI User Share: El Salvador (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +5.50 pts20.1% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
Climate and the physical world2 of 4
Health and living standards4
- El Salvador · Tertiary Enrollment Gender Gap · pts (women − men)record high since 1973; 1y +0.32 pts9.872024
- El Salvador · Tertiary Enrollment, Men · % grossrecord high since 1973; 1y +0.301 pts28% gross2024
- El Salvador · Tertiary Enrollment, Women · % grossrecord high since 1973; 1y +0.624 pts37.9% gross2024
- El Salvador · Deaths from Non-Communicable Diseases · % of all deaths53.9% of deaths2021
More about this country2
- El Salvador · IMF Credit Outstanding · USD bn (IMF)93rd percentile since Nov 1956; 1y −0.1%$0.24bn2026-09-01
- El Salvador · IMF Credit Outstanding, % of GDP73rd percentile since 1980; 1y +0.374 pts0.64% of GDP2025
Peers
Elsewhere in North America
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AnguillaAntigua and BarbudaArubaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBermudaCanadaCayman IslandsCosta RicaCubaCuraçaoDominicaDominican RepublicGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMartiniqueMexicoMontserratNicaraguaPanamaPuerto RicoSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Pierre and MiquelonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSint MaartenTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos IslandsUnited StatesVirgin IslandsVirgin Islands