Mexico
Everything Palanor holds about Mexico, in one place: 280 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
North AmericaAmericasLatin America & CaribbeanG20OECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $1,833 billion (2025); record high since 1960; 1y +0.1%.
- Real GDP growth: 0.56% (2025); 15th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.79 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 3.81% (2025); 23rd percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.91 pts.
- Unemployment: 2.67% (2025); 10th percentile since 1991; lowest since 2001; 1y −0.01 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 70.2% of GDP (2025); 65th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.45 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -0.63% of GDP (2025); 85th percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +0.23 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 14.7% of companies (2026-10-21); 75th percentile since Dec 2021; 1y −2.86 pts.
Country Posture
What Mexico’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 0.6 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -2.2 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.0 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.0 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202531Thin buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by current account (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 20.0 | 7 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -5.9 | 8 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 3.7 | 46 |
| Current account | -0.5 | 67 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.57 | 16 |
| External debt (2024) | 32.9 | 60 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 3.8 |
| Change in inflation | -0.9 |
| Currency move against the dollar | 5.0% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 59.9 |
| Political stability | -0.61 |
| Private credit, three-year change | 1.3 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | 4.8 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Mexico is in its cycles
Where Mexico sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
Drive to maturity99% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Late expanding44% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Early cycle77% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Mature debtor83% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Manufacturing exporter97% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
High56% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Middle-class majority99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a Mexico passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Mexico itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
15.8%rank 45 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 4 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Mexico’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 70.2% of GDP, government consumption 11.8%, investment 22.6% and net exports -0.6% (exports 39.6%, imports 40.3%). In 2024, 2025 the parts miss 100 by more than three points (the statistical discrepancy in Mexico’s national accounts).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Mexico
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 1,835 | 2,176 | 2,315 | 2,778 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 3,425 | 3,594 | 3,772 | 4,422 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 13,759 | 16,191 | 17,095 | 20,014 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 61.7 | 62.1 | 62.9 | 64.5 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 53.2 | 53.6 | 54.5 | 56.5 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -4.9 | -4.2 | -3.9 | -3.1 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Mexico
71 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Mexico on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 21.7% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Grupo Mexico withdraws from Argentina rail privatization bid
The Mexican conglomerate pulls out of the Belgrano Cargas concession, undermining President Milei's privatization agenda.
Palanor Wire2026-10-21neutral
- Latin America: Fourteen dead in Colombia mine; YPF case dismissed in New York
Mine tragedy in Colombia, legal victory for Argentina, trade talks with Mexico
Palanor Wire2026-10-20neutral
- Latin America: Mexico storm, Chile-Bolivia thaw, Brazil's Bolsonaro sweep
Regional developments from Mexico to Chile
Palanor Wire2026-10-19neutral
- Hurricane Trudy strikes Mexico's Pacific coast as Category 2
Hurricane Trudy is bringing heavy rain and winds to Mexico's Pacific coast as a Category 2 storm before weakening tonight.
Palanor Wire2026-10-18negative · -strikes
- Hurricane Trudy approaches Mexico with heavy rain
Hurricane Trudy moves toward Mexico's west-central Pacific coast with threats of heavy rain and coastal flooding while Typhoon Champi endangers Guam.
Palanor Wire2026-10-17neutral
- Hurricane Trudy strengthens to Category 3 off Mexico's Pacific coast
The major hurricane is moving northwest at 6 mph with 120 mph winds and is forecast to bring severe rainfall to coastal states.
Palanor Wire2026-10-16positive · +strengthens
- Grupo Mexico opts out of Argentina cargo rail bid in blow to Milei privatization drive
MINING.COM · Latin America2026-10-21neutral
- Mexico revives rare treason charge against former state prosecutor reut.rs/4eqnn1H
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- Grupo Mexico reports higher quarterly profit, cuts copper guidance
MINING.COM · Copper2026-10-20negative · -cuts
- Mexico Poised to Approve $12.5 Billion in Renewable Energy Projects
OilPrice.com2026-10-20positive · +approve
- Citi Mexico sees new opportunities with banks after Banamex split reut.rs/4zKEp2R
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral
- Mexico revamps aviation regulator following US safety audit reut.rs/3U2ypn2
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral
- Prudential sheds Brazil, Mexico units to CNP for $4 billion as it narrows its focus reut.rs/484zkqg
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral
- Trump says Mexico and US are close to trade deal reut.rs/4k5W8gr
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20positive · +deal
Headlines that name Mexico, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Mexico
Palanor’s company graph holds 366 entities headquartered here, 2 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
- Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.B. de C.V.VLRS · Mexico City
Signals
Every series about Mexico
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 280 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 66
- Mexico Goods Exports to the World (IMF)record high since Feb 1960; 1y +34.3%$72.6bn2026-06-01
- Mexico Goods Exports to United States (IMF)record high since Feb 1960; 1y +35.1%$61bn2026-06-01
- Mexico Goods Imports from the World (IMF)record high since Feb 1960; 1y +28.0%$72.6bn2026-06-01
- Mexico Goods Imports from United States (IMF)99th percentile since Feb 1960; highest since Oct 2024; 1y +13.6%$25bn2026-06-01
- Mexico Goods Imports from China (IMF)99th percentile since Jul 1960; highest since Dec 2025; 1y +7.3%$12.2bn2026-06-01
- Mexico Goods Exports to China (IMF)99th percentile since Jul 1960; lowest since Feb 2026; 1y +51.4%$1.16bn2026-06-01
- Mexico Merchandise Exports100th percentile since Jan 1980; 1y +40.4%782026-08-01
- Mexico Exports to the United States100th percentile since Jan 1993; 1y +44.0%66.72026-08-01
- Mexico Industrial Production99th percentile since Jan 1993; highest since Jan 2024; 1y +3.6%103.42026-08-01
- Mexico Manufacturing Exportsrecord high since Jan 1993; 1y +42.3%73.22026-08-01
Prices7 of 9
- Mexico Consumer Price Index (INPC)record high since Jan 1969; 1y +3.5%146.12026-09-01
- Mexico Inflation (12-Month)9th percentile since Jan 1970; highest since May 2026; 1y −0.31 pts3.45% y/y2026-09-01
- Mexico Core Inflation (12-Month)25th percentile since Feb 1983; lowest since Mar 2025; 1y −0.53 pts3.75% y/y2026-09-01
- Mexico Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +3.5%166.6 index2026-09-01
- Mexico Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)27th percentile since Jan 2011; highest since May 2026; 1y −0.31 pts3.45% y/y2026-09-01
- Mexico Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −3.3%70.62026-09-01
- Mexico · Inflation · CPI % y/y23rd percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.91 pts3.81%2025
Jobs and people at work7 of 8
- Mexico · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)17th percentile since Jan 1987; 1y +0.09 pts2.75% of labour force2026-08-01
- Mexico Unemployment Rate11th percentile since Jan 2005; 1y +0.0692 pts2.72%2026-08-01
- Mexico — Avg annual hours worked per worker3rd percentile since 1950; 1y −0.7%1,628.9 hours/year2023-06-30
- Mexico · Female Labor Force Participation · %record high since 1990; 1y +0.04 pts47.5%2025
- Mexico · Male Labor Force Participation · %7th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.11 pts77.1%2025
- Average annual hours worked · Mexico36th percentile since 1991; lowest since 2004; 1y −0.4%2,205.4 hours2025
- Mexico · Unemployment Rate · %10th percentile since 1991; lowest since 2001; 1y −0.01 pts2.67%2025
Money, rates and credit8 of 9
- Banco de México Policy Rate56th percentile since Jan 2008; 1y −1.00 pts6.5%2026-10-21
- Mexico 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Monthly)77th percentile since Jul 2001; highest since May 2026; 1y +0.56 pts9.35%2026-09-01
- Bank of Mexico Total Assets · % of Mexico GDP66th percentile since Jan 1977; lowest since Apr 2024; 1y −1.23 pts14.7% of GDP2026-01-01
- Mexico Credit to the Private Non-Financial Sector (Local Currency)record high since Oct 1980; 1y +2.7%13,7392026-01-01
- Mexico · Bank Nonperforming Loans Ratio (IMF FSI)41st percentile since Jan 2005; 1y +0.191 pts2.19%2026-01-01
- Mexico · Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (IMF FSI)98th percentile since Jan 2005; 1y +0.418 pts20.3%2026-01-01
- Mexico · Bank Return on Equity (IMF FSI)69th percentile since Jan 2005; 1y −0.966 pts17.2%2026-01-01
- Mexico Private Credit, Index 2015 = 100record high since 2015; 1y +3.3%185.42025
Stock market and listed companies2
- Mexico Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)99th percentile since Jan 1970; lowest since Dec 2025; 1y +5.1%146.72026-09-01
- Mexico Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)36th percentile since Jan 1971; lowest since May 2025; 1y −12.33 pts5.08% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 16
- Mexico · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)75th percentile since 1972; highest since 1992; 1y +1.45 pts20%2024
- Mexico · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)14th percentile since 1972; lowest since 1988; 1y −1.76-5.95 pct_gdp2024
- Mexico · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)63rd percentile since 1972; highest since 1999; 1y +0.91 pts15.8%2023
- Mexico · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)record high since 1985; 1y +0.37 pts10% of GDP2023
- Mexico · Budget Balance · % GDP4th percentile since 1990; 1y +1.03-3.94 pct_gdp2025
- Mexico · Government Spending · % GDP96th percentile since 1990; 1y −3.7%26.4 pct_gdp2025
- Mexico · Net Interest · % GDP93rd percentile since 1990; highest since 1991; 1y +10.1%3.78 pct_gdp2025
- Mexico · Net Interest · % of Government Spending76th percentile since 1990; highest since 2000; 1y +1.80 pts14.4%2025
- Mexico · Net Interest · USD bn (PPP)record high since 1990; 1y +14.0%$132.3bn2025
- Mexico · Primary Balance · % GDP26th percentile since 1990; 1y +1.38-0.15 pct_gdp2025
Trade and capital flows10 of 12
- Mexico Foreign Direct Investment Inflows93rd percentile since Jan 1960; 1y −24.8%10.52026-04-01
- U.S. Integrated Circuits Exports to Mexico, 12 Months90th percentile since Dec 2013; 1y +2.1%12.4 $ billions2026-08-01
- U.S. Integrated Circuits Imports From Mexico, 12 Months25th percentile since Dec 2013; 1y −78.8%0.2 $ billions2026-08-01
- Mexico · Net International Investment Position (IMF)12th percentile since Jan 2009; 1y +17.11$-637.6bn2026-04-01
- Mexico · Current Account · % GDP76th percentile since 1979; highest since 2021; 1y +0.41-0.51 pct_gdp2025
- U.S. Goods Trade With Mexico (Exports + Imports)record high since 1985; 1y +4.1%871.6 $ billions2025
- Mexico's Share of U.S. Goods Trade94th percentile since 1987; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.144 pts15.6% of U.S. goods trade2025
- Mexico — FDI inflows (% of GDP)38th percentile since 1996; 1y −0.0535 pts2.43% of GDP2025-12-31
- Mexico — FDI net inflows ($)92nd percentile since 1996; 1y −2.0%44,581,815,369 current US$2025-12-31
- Mexico · International Tourist Arrivalsrecord low since 1995; 1y −47.5%51,128,000 arrivals2020
Energy and resources10 of 24
- Crude Oil Production · Mexico20th percentile since Jan 1973; highest since Nov 2024; 1y +2.1%1,755.82026-06-01
- Mexico · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −0.05 pts1.5% of generation2025
- Mexico · Carbon Intensity of Electricity10th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2022; 1y −1.7%481.4 gCO2e/kWh2025
- Mexico · Coal Share of Electricity Generation6th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.29 pts3.32% of generation2025
- Mexico · Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +0.4%389.7 TWh2025
- Mexico · Gas Share of Electricity Generation94th percentile since 2000; 1y −0.97 pts70% of generation2025
- Mexico · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation13th percentile since 2000; highest since 2022; 1y +1.32 pts7.51% of generation2025
- Mexico · Hydro, Bioenergy and Other Renewables Share of Electricity Generation13th percentile since 2000; highest since 2022; 1y +1.28 pts9.02% of generation2025
- Mexico · Nuclear Share of Electricity Generation6th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2010; 1y −0.58 pts2.59% of generation2025
- Mexico · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −0.02 pts2.48% of generation2025
Conflict and geopolitics7 of 13
- Geopolitical Risk — Mexico70th percentile since Jan 1985; 1y −0.0814 pts0.11%2026-09-01
- Mexico · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)77th percentile since 1989; lowest since 2016; 1y −28.4%7,904 deaths2025
- Mexico · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
- Mexico · Governance · WGI six-dimension meanrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.035-0.57 index2025
- Mexico · Political Stability · WGI69th percentile since 1996; 1y −0.028-0.61 index2025
- Mexico · Regulatory Quality · WGIrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.076-0.23 index2025
- Mexico · Rule of Law · WGIrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.053-1.17 index2025
Migration4 of 7
- International Migrant Stock: Mexico (UN)record high since 19901,726,089 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Mexico (UN)record high since 19901.32% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Mexico (UN)record high since 1990823,502 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Mexico (UN)0.792024
AI stance and technology4 of 6
- AI User Share: Mexico (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +4.70 pts21.4% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
- AI Optimism Lean · Mexico (Pew)1y −1.60 pts25.5%2026
- More Concerned Than Excited About AI · Mexico (Pew)1y +3.00 pts38%2026
- More Excited Than Concerned About AI · Mexico (Pew)1y unchanged13%2026
Climate and the physical world10 of 12
- Mexico CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)92nd percentile since 1856; highest since 2019; 1y +0.6%461 Mt CO₂2024
- Mexico Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1856; 1y +2.1%22 Gt CO₂2024
- NO2 Pollution Hotspots: Mexico (Sentinel-5P, monthly)10th percentile since May 2018; lowest since Sep 2025; 1y +6.0%1.462026-09-01
- NO2 Pollution: Mexico (Sentinel-5P, monthly)35th percentile since May 2018; lowest since Oct 2025; 1y +2.1%0.872026-09-01
- Mexico · Arable Land · % of land48th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2019; 1y −0.01 pts10.3% of land area2024
- Mexico · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.7%3,1802022
- Mexico · Forest Area · % of landrecord low since 1990; 1y −0.07 pts34.2%2024
- Mexico · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³7th percentile since 1990; 1y +2.3%14.4 µg/m³2020
- Mexico · Plastic Emitted to the Ocean by Rivers · tonnes per year (2015)2,280.4 t/yr2015
- Mexico · Share of Global River Plastic Emitted to the Ocean · % (2015)0.23% of world2015
Health and living standards10 of 19
- Births: Mexico22nd percentile since 1950; lowest since 1965; 1y −1.2%2,037,6892023
- Deaths: Mexico95th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2019; 1y −4.7%799,3662023
- Fertility Rate: Mexicorecord low since 1950; 1y −1.5%1.912023
- Median Age: Mexicorecord high since 1950; 1y +1.3%28.9 years2023
- Population Aged 65 and Over: Mexicorecord high since 1950; 1y +0.242 pts7.99% of population2023
- Population: Mexicorecord high since 1950; 1y +0.9%129,739,759 people2023
- Mexico · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.3%75.3 years2024
- Mexico · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.8%0.79 index2023
- Mexico · Access to Electricity · % of population89th percentile since 1992; 1y +0.1 pts99.8%2024
- Mexico · Basic Drinking Water Access · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y +0.13 pts99.5%2024
Sentiment and attention2
- Mexico Consumer Confidence86th percentile since Apr 2001; 1y −2.1%45.1 index points2026-09-01
- Mexico · Search Attention44th percentile since Sep 2021; lowest since Aug 23, 2026; 1y −25.5%38 index2026-09-20
More about this country3 of 19
- USD/MXN Exchange Rate (FIX)78th percentile since Nov 1991; lowest since Oct 13, 2026; 1y +0.1%18.4 MXN per USD2026-10-20
- USD / MXN78th percentile since Nov 1993; 1y +0.5%18.5 rate2026-10-16
- Mexico · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)99th percentile since Dec 1950; 1y +2.3%$265.5bn2026-09-01
Peers
Elsewhere in North America
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AnguillaAntigua and BarbudaArubaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBermudaCanadaCayman IslandsCosta RicaCubaCuraçaoDominicaDominican RepublicEl SalvadorGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMartiniqueMontserratNicaraguaPanamaPuerto RicoSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Pierre and MiquelonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSint MaartenTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos IslandsUnited StatesVirgin IslandsVirgin Islands