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Canada

Everything Palanor holds about Canada, in one place: 416 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

North AmericaAmericasG7G20OECD

The latest read

Country Posture

What Canada’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth1.7
Growth against its three-year average-1.2
Change in unemployment0.6
Change in the employment rate-0.6
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

50Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by governance (wgi mean) (up) and current account (down) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)8.451
Budget balance (2024)-1.243
Reserves, months of imports1.651
Current account-1.050
Governance (WGI mean)1.4353
External debt——

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation2.1
Change in inflation-0.3
Currency move against the dollar2.1%
Conflict deaths per million0.0
Political stability0.81
Private credit, three-year change—
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries-1.1

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where Canada is in its cycles

Where Canada sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    High mass consumption100% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Low stationary98% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

    Withheld: too little of its evidence is published and fresh.

  • External balance stage

    Credit disinvestor65% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Diversifying58% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Low70% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Affluent99% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2021-102026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a Canada passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Canada itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

80.0%

rank 38 of 199 · +16.8 pts in a year

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 44 destinations in full.

Work

28.0%

rank 29 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 29 at half.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2026-02-17China · visit: Visa required → Visa-free source
  • 2025-04-10Brazil · visit: Visa-free → Visa required source
  • 2025-01-08United Kingdom · visit: Visa-free → Online travel authorisation source
  • 2024-03-01Finland (working holiday) · work: no route → Working holiday source
  • 2023-12-23Türkiye · visit: E-visa before travel → Visa-free source
  • 2023-11-22India · visit: Visa required → E-visa before travel source

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Canada passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 80.0% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Canada’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 55.8% of GDP, government consumption 21.9%, investment 23.1% and net exports -0.8% (exports 31.3%, imports 32.2%).

What Canada's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearHouseholds: 55.8% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Canada

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.4 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%1.91.11.71.8
Inflation, average consumer prices%2.12.82.42.0
Unemployment rate% of labor force6.96.56.36.0
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn2,3212,4902,6253,134
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn2,7902,9163,0603,530
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$55,79660,10563,35473,696
Current account balance% of GDP-0.9-0.1-0.20.3
Government gross debt% of GDP113.6115.6113.4107.0
Government net debt% of GDP10.49.39.610.2
Government overall balance% of GDP-1.7-2.5-2.4-1.7
Government primary balance% of GDP-1.9-2.6-2.3-1.4
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.-0.2-0.10.10.3
Canada: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 1.9% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Canada: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 114% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

Canada: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 1.7% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
Canada: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10061.9 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →
Canada: Economy HealthPalanor monthly composite, each input scored against its own record since 1998, 0 to 10066.9 in Sep 2026 · Sep 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →
Canada: share pricesBroad national share price index, monthly average, 2015 = 100, local currency (OECD)250 in Sep 2026 · Sep 2026
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOpen the chart →

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name Canada

88 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Canada on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 35.0% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name CanadaShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)Earnings calls: 19.8% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in CanadaDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate0 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-03: 2 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-10: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-17: 3 headlines, net tone -0.33Week of 2026-08-24: 8 headlines, net tone -0.12Week of 2026-08-31: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-07: 4 headlines, net tone 0.50Week of 2026-09-14: 6 headlines, net tone 0.33Week of 2026-09-21: 3 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-28: 22 headlines, net tone 0.23Week of 2026-10-05: 30 headlines, net tone 0.17Week of 2026-10-12: 38 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-19: 21 headlines, net tone -0.05
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-03 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Canada, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Canada

Palanor’s company graph holds 1,954 entities headquartered here, 44 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

  • Bunker Hill Mining Corp.BHLL · Carson City
  • ALPHA PRO TECH LTDAPT · WILMINGTON
  • D-Wave Quantum Inc.QBTS · WILMINGTON
  • CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE /CAN/CM · Boston
  • CTT PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDINGS, INC.CTTH · WILMINGTON
  • BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/BMO · Montreal
  • CGI INCGIB · Montreal
  • Canopy Growth CorpCGC · Smiths Falls
  • BROOKFIELD Corp /ON/BN · TORONTO
  • CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COCNI · MONTREAL
  • BCE INCBCE · Verdun
  • Colliers International Group Inc.CIGI · TORONTO

Signals

Every series about Canada

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 416 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 77

Prices10 of 13

Jobs and people at work10 of 47

Money, rates and credit10 of 16

Stock market and listed companies2

Government and debt10 of 26

Trade and capital flows10 of 13

Energy and resources10 of 69

Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12

Aid in and out2

Migration4 of 7

AI stance and technology9 of 10

Climate and the physical world10 of 15

Health and living standards10 of 21

Sentiment and attention7

More about this country9 of 23

Peers

Elsewhere in North America

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AnguillaAntigua and BarbudaArubaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBermudaCayman IslandsCosta RicaCubaCuraçaoDominicaDominican RepublicEl SalvadorGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMartiniqueMexicoMontserratNicaraguaPanamaPuerto RicoSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Pierre and MiquelonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSint MaartenTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos IslandsUnited StatesVirgin IslandsVirgin Islands

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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