Panama
Everything Palanor holds about Panama, in one place: 148 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
North AmericaAmericasLatin America & Caribbean
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $90.5 billion (2025); record high since 1960; 1y +4.6%.
- Real GDP growth: 4.35% (2025); 33rd percentile since 1961; 1y +1.60 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: -0.19% (2025); 4th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.88 pts.
- Unemployment: 8.36% (2025); 90th percentile since 1991; 1y −0.09 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 49% of GDP (2024); 10th percentile since 1990; highest since 2021; 1y +1.69 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 5.04% of GDP (2024); record high since 1990; 1y +2.13 pts.
Country Posture
What Panama’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 4.4 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -2.6 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | 0.0 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202531Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (down) and governance (wgi mean) (down) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 28.9 | 6 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -8.2 | 10 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 1.7 | 46 |
| Current account | -0.2 | 75 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.01 | 28 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | -0.2 |
| Change in inflation | -0.9 |
| Currency move against the dollar | 0.0% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 0.24 |
| Private credit, three-year change | -5.6 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Panama is in its cycles
Where Panama sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption70% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Late expanding85% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Deleveraging80% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Debt repayer79% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Commodity-reliant95% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Building92% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Middle-class majority99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a Panama passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Panama itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
13.0%rank 67 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 1 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Panama’s economy runs on
In 2024, household spending was 49.0% of GDP, government consumption 12.4%, investment 33.5% and net exports +5.0% (exports 44.4%, imports 39.3%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Panama
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 1.2 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | -0.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 10.4 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 7.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 90.5 | 96.5 | 102.7 | 133.2 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 200.7 | 217.8 | 234.1 | 302.3 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 19,814 | 20,877 | 21,960 | 27,139 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -0.2 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.6 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 56.6 | 56.4 | 55.9 | 49.6 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 33.8 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -3.7 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Panama
1.6% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Two powerful earthquakes strike Panama
Two powerful earthquakes and aftershocks struck Panama, prompting evacuations and tsunami warnings across Central America's Pacific coast.
Palanor Wire2026-10-10negative · -strike
- Powerful earthquake strikes Panama triggering tsunami alerts
A 7.6-7.7 magnitude earthquake hit Panama on Friday, causing evacuations, building damage, and tsunami warnings across Central America.
Palanor Wire2026-10-09negative · -strikes
- Panama panel recommends reviving First Quantum mine
A Panama ministerial commission proposes reviving First Quantum's copper mine to finance its closure at no cost to the state.
Palanor Wire2026-10-01neutral
- Panama copper and Vatican rare earths signal mining's next pressure points
A shuttered First Quantum project clears an environmental hurdle while a banker pitches Pope Leo XIV on critical minerals, underscoring capital's search for political permission to extract.
Palanor Wire2026-06-21neutral
- US imposes sanctions on Greek, Panama law firm for helping Iran shipping reut.rs/4zKALpC
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21negative · -sanctions
- What is the US Army doing in Panama? A bit of everything.
Defense News2026-10-16neutral
- How to earn the US Army’s Jungle tab in Panama — and lose 10lbs
Defense News2026-10-14neutral
- A preliminary magnitude 6.1 earthquake hit southern Panama Monday evening, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, but there were no immediate reports of casualties or property damage.
The Associated Press · Bluesky2026-10-13neutral
- Magnitude 6 earthquake strikes Panama, EMSC says reut.rs/47RH6DK
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-13negative · -strikes
- Panama suffers over 200 aftershocks after Friday's 7.7-magnitude earthquake reut.rs/4hDQvVo
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-11neutral
- PODCAST: Delhi protests, Trump's Russia diesel deal and Panama quake reut.rs/4y9g1Xr
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-10neutral · -protests +deal
- Panama earthquake today: President declares ‘major disaster’ as buildings collapse and aftershocks rattle country
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-10negative · -collapse
- Panama earthquake: Second 6.6-magnitude tremor follows 7.7 quake
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-09neutral
- Powerful 7.7 and 6.6 magnitude earthquakes and multiple aftershocks rock Panama, USGS says.
The Associated Press · Bluesky2026-10-09neutral
Headlines that name Panama, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Panama
Palanor’s company graph holds 24 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Panama
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 148 in the Library.
Growth and output8 of 30
- Panama · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1960; 1y +4.6%$90.5bn2025
- Panama · Real GDP Growth · % y/y33rd percentile since 1961; 1y +1.60 pts4.35%2025
- Panama · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP10th percentile since 1970; 1y −0.0639 pts2.62% of GDP2025
- Panama · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDP65th percentile since 1970; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.601 pts24.9% of GDP2025
- Panama · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDPrecord low since 1970; 1y −0.141 pts4.8% of GDP2025
- Panama · Services Value Added · % of GDP67th percentile since 1970; highest since 2020; 1y +0.676 pts70% of GDP2025
- Panama · GDP per Capita · PPP USDrecord high since 1990; 1y +6.0%43,902 usd2025
- Panama · Country Strength5th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2020; 1y −17.2%42.9 index2025
Prices1 of 3
- Panama · Inflation · CPI % y/y4th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.88 pts-0.19%2025
Jobs and people at work3 of 4
- Panama · Female Labor Force Participation · %93rd percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +0.11 pts54.9%2025
- Panama · Male Labor Force Participation · %13th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.14 pts77.9%2025
- Panama · Unemployment Rate · %90th percentile since 1991; 1y −0.09 pts8.36%2025
Government and debt8
- Panama · Budget Balance · % GDP20th percentile since 1994; highest since 2019; 1y +2.56-3.67 pct_gdp2025
- Panama · Government Debt · % GDP52nd percentile since 1994; 1y −2.1%56.6 pct_gdp2025
- Panama · Government Spending · % GDP5th percentile since 1994; lowest since 2019; 1y −9.4%20.9 pct_gdp2025
- Panama · Net Interest · % GDP70th percentile since 1994; highest since 2006; 1y +2.8%2.99 pct_gdp2025
- Panama · Primary Balance · % GDP30th percentile since 1994; highest since 2017; 1y +2.64-0.68 pct_gdp2025
- Panama · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)14th percentile since 2014; lowest since 2020; 1y −4.16-8.22 pct_gdp2024
- Panama · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)record high since 2014; 1y +7.79 pts28.9%2024
- Panama · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)81st percentile since 2014; highest since 2014; 1y +0.49 pts13.4%2021
Trade and capital flows2 of 3
- Panama · Current Account · % GDP81st percentile since 1977; 1y −0.85-0.19 pct_gdp2025
- Panama · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)24th percentile since 1995; highest since 2017; 1y +2.88 pts-85.3% of GDP2025
Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12
- Panama · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
- Panama · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
- Panama · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean6th percentile since 1996; lowest since 1996; 1y −0.032-0.01 index2025
- Panama · Political Stability · WGI54th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2013; 1y −31.7%0.24 index2025
- Panama · Regulatory Quality · WGIrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.032-0.12 index2025
- Panama · Rule of Law · WGI9th percentile since 1996; 1y +0.026-0.3 index2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Panama (UN)record high since 1990477,749 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Panama (UN)record high since 199010.6% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Panama (UN)record high since 199025,732 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Panama (UN)7.812024
AI stance and technology1 of 3
- AI User Share: Panama (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +3.90 pts24.2% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
Climate and the physical world6 of 8
- Panama · Arable Land · % of land48th percentile since 1961; lowest since 1991; 1y −0.12 pts6.71% of land area2024
- Panama · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −1.3%31,0402022
- Panama · Forest Area · % of landrecord low since 1990; 1y −0.04 pts62.3%2024
- Panama · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −3.4%11.2 µg/m³2020
- Panama · Plastic Emitted to the Ocean by Rivers · tonnes per year (2015)5,236.4 t/yr2015
- Panama · Share of Global River Plastic Emitted to the Ocean · % (2015)0.52% of world2015
Health and living standards10 of 11
- Panama · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.2%79.8 years2024
- Panama · Tertiary Enrollment Gender Gap · pts (women − men)96th percentile since 1970; 1y −2.78 pts24.82023
- Panama · Tertiary Enrollment, Men · % gross96th percentile since 1970; 1y −2.76 pts41.6% gross2023
- Panama · Tertiary Enrollment, Women · % gross96th percentile since 1970; 1y −5.54 pts66.3% gross2023
- Panama · Access to Electricity · % of population96th percentile since 1990; 1y −1.00 pts96%2024
- Panama · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.5%0.84 index2023
- Panama · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of population5th percentile since 1979; lowest since 2019; 1y −0.6 pts3.1%2024
- Panama · Basic Drinking Water Access · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y +0.2 pts95.3%2024
- Panama · Undernourishment · % of population8th percentile since 2001; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.4 pts4.7%2024
- Panama · Poverty at National Lines · % of population18th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2019; 1y −0.5 pts21.7%2023
Sentiment and attention2
- "Cobre Panamá" — Panama interest96th percentile since Sep 2021; highest since Aug 16, 2026; 1y +36.0036 index2026-09-20
- Panama · Search Attention58th percentile since Sep 2021; highest since Aug 30, 2026; 1y −19.0%34 index2026-09-20
More about this country2 of 18
- Panama · IMF Credit Outstanding · USD bn (IMF)record low since May 1968; 1y unchanged$0bn2026-09-01
- Panama · IMF Credit Outstanding, % of GDPrecord low since 1980; 1y −0.142 pts0% of GDP2025
Peers
Elsewhere in North America
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AnguillaAntigua and BarbudaArubaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBermudaCanadaCayman IslandsCosta RicaCubaCuraçaoDominicaDominican RepublicEl SalvadorGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuatemalaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMartiniqueMexicoMontserratNicaraguaPuerto RicoSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Pierre and MiquelonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSint MaartenTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos IslandsUnited StatesVirgin IslandsVirgin Islands