Uganda
Everything Palanor holds about Uganda, in one place: 49 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaMiddle East & Africa
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $62 billion (2025); record high since 1990; 1y +15.0%.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 65.2% of GDP (2025); record low since 1990; 1y −0.86 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -7.32% of GDP (2025); 82nd percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +1.82 pts.
Country Posture
What Uganda’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 6.3 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 1.0 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.0 |
| Change in the employment rate | 0.0 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202529Thin buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by current account (up) and governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 21.0 | 8 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -4.3 | 34 |
| Reserves, months of imports (2024) | 2.3 | 13 |
| Current account | -5.2 | 41 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.76 | 29 |
| External debt (2024) | 39.2 | 56 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 3.6 |
| Change in inflation | 0.3 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -4.2% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.1 |
| Political stability | -0.87 |
| Private credit, three-year change (2024) | -0.5 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a Uganda passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Uganda itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
0.0%rank 114 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Uganda’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 65.2% of GDP, government consumption 11.7%, investment 22.6% and net exports -7.3% (exports 21.4%, imports 28.8%). In 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 the parts miss 100 by more than three points (the statistical discrepancy in Uganda’s national accounts).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Uganda
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 1.3 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 5.7 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 66.5 | 72.2 | 80.4 | 115.8 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 188.3 | 206.7 | 234.2 | 322.1 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 1,384 | 1,453 | 1,548 | 1,953 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -5.1 | -7.3 | -2.4 | -0.5 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 53.2 | 55.1 | 54.9 | 57.2 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -6.6 | -5.8 | -5.6 | -5.6 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -2.6 | -1.4 | -0.9 | 0.2 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Nigeria confirms Ebola case in patient who arrived from Uganda reut.rs/4i8m0WG
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral
- Criptomonedas, niños de Uganda y una denuncia que sacude la campaña de Flavio Bolsonaro
La Nación (Argentina)2026-10-09neutral
- Uganda edge Zambia in Olympic qualifier first leg – Zambia: News Diggers!
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-09neutral
- In @nytopinion.nytimes.com
“Technology has created an intrusive eye that never blinks — a stealthy weapon for dictators keen to stifle speech and thought,” Megan Stack writes from Kampala, Uganda.
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-09neutral
- Uganda approves sale of Dangote refinery shares to domestic investors reut.rs/4rOfxo6
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-07positive · +approves
Headlines that name Uganda, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Uganda
Palanor’s company graph holds 6 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Uganda
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 49 in the Library.
Growth and output4
- Uganda · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1990; 1y +15.0%$62bn2025
- Uganda: Share of World GDP at Market Exchange Ratesrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.004 pts0.05% of world GDP2025
- Uganda: Share of World GDP Minus Share of World Populationrecord low since 1990; 1y −0.007 pts-0.572025
- Uganda: Share of World Populationrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.011 pts0.63% of world population2025
Trade and capital flows1
- Uganda · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)13th percentile since 1999; highest since 2021; 1y +2.43 pts-52.7% of GDP2025
Conflict and geopolitics2 of 6
- Uganda · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)28th percentile since 1989; 1y +100.0%4 deaths2025
- Uganda · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)42nd percentile since 1989; 1y +4.004 deaths2025
Migration1 of 3
- U.S.-Born People Living in Uganda (UN)record high since 19901,422 people2024
AI stance and technology1
- AI User Share: Uganda (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +1.60 pts8% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
More about this country2
- Uganda · IMF Credit Outstanding · USD bn (IMF)96th percentile since Oct 1971; 1y −7.4%$1.26bn2026-09-01
- Uganda · IMF Credit Outstanding, % of GDP47th percentile since 1980; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.3 pts1.97% of GDP2025
Peers
Elsewhere in Africa
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCameroonCentral African RepublicChadComorosCongoCôte d'IvoireDjiboutiDR CongoEgyptEquatorial GuineaEritreaEswatiniEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRéunionRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaZambiaZimbabwe