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PalanorPalanor

Ethiopia

Everything Palanor holds about Ethiopia, in one place: 158 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaBRICSMiddle East & Africa

The latest read

Country Posture

What Ethiopia’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth9.8
Growth against its three-year average3.3
Change in unemployment-0.0
Change in the employment rate0.0
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

36Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)12.619
Budget balance (2024)-1.966
Reserves, months of imports (2024)1.816
Current account (2024)-2.561
Governance (WGI mean)-0.9626
External debt——

Pressure

2024

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation21.0
Change in inflation-9.2
Currency move against the dollar41.4%
Conflict deaths per million31.5
Political stability-1.84
Private credit, three-year change—
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where Ethiopia is in its cycles

Where Ethiopia sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    Pre-take-off93% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Early expanding67% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

    Withheld: too little of its evidence is published and fresh.

  • External balance stage

    Immature debtor97% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Commodity-reliant99% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Acute96% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Pre-middle-class99% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Post-election99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2021-072026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a Ethiopia passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Ethiopia itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

0.5%

rank 152 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 1 destination in full.

Work

13.0%

rank 67 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 1 at half.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Ethiopia passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 0.5% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Ethiopia’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 80.9% of GDP, government consumption 5.8%, investment 20.1% and net exports -6.9% (exports 13.3%, imports 20.2%).

What Ethiopia's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearTotal 100.0% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Ethiopia

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.0 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%9.29.27.87.7
Inflation, average consumer prices%16.011.712.36.7
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn126.4127.1145.7245.9
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn497.3561.3624.0916.1
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$1,1421,1311,2772,022
Current account balance% of GDP-0.8-2.5-1.3-2.7
Government gross debt% of GDP43.340.737.027.5
Government net debt% of GDP40.938.835.526.8
Government overall balance% of GDP-1.2-2.0-1.2-1.6
Government primary balance% of GDP-0.4-0.70.1-0.1
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.0.81.31.31.5
Ethiopia: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 9.2% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Ethiopia: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 43% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

Ethiopia: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 9.8% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
Ethiopia: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10033.0 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in EthiopiaDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate5,458 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-24: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-28: 7 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-10-05: 7 headlines, net tone -0.57Week of 2026-10-12: 4 headlines, net tone -0.50
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-24 to 2026-10-12). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Ethiopia, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Signals

Every series about Ethiopia

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 158 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 36

Prices1 of 3

Jobs and people at work3 of 4

Government and debt8

Trade and capital flows1 of 2

Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12

Migration3 of 5

AI stance and technology1 of 2

Climate and the physical world5 of 7

Health and living standards10 of 26

Sentiment and attention1

More about this country2 of 16

Peers

Elsewhere in Africa

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCameroonCentral African RepublicChadComorosCongoCôte d'IvoireDjiboutiDR CongoEgyptEquatorial GuineaEritreaEswatiniGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRéunionRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZambiaZimbabwe

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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