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PalanorPalanor

South Africa

Everything Palanor holds about South Africa, in one place: 258 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaG20BRICSMiddle East & Africa

The latest read

Country Posture

What South Africa’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth1.1
Growth against its three-year average-0.0
Change in unemployment0.1
Change in the employment rate-0.1
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator0.2

Resilience

2025

42Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by governance (wgi mean) (up) and reserves, months of imports (up) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)18.216
Budget balance (2024)-4.821
Reserves, months of imports6.285
Current account-0.468
Governance (WGI mean)0.0233
External debt (2024)44.834

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation3.2
Change in inflation-1.2
Currency move against the dollar-2.4%
Conflict deaths per million0.3
Political stability-0.38
Private credit, three-year change (2024)-3.7
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries5.9

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where South Africa is in its cycles

Where South Africa sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    Drive to maturity92% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Late expanding96% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Debt cycle stage

    Deleveraging94% · 2025

    Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

  • External balance stage

    Mature debtor50% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Diversifying97% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    High75% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Emerging middle class99% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2020-012026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a South Africa passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside South Africa itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

8.5%

rank 117 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 6 destinations in full.

Work

0.4%

rank 113 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 1 at half.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2024-07-10Ireland · visit: Visa-free → Visa required source

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a South Africa passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 8.5% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What South Africa’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 65.8% of GDP, government consumption 18.9%, investment 13.9% and net exports +1.9% (exports 31.4%, imports 29.5%).

What South Africa's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each year
GovernmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for South Africa

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.0 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%1.11.01.31.8
Inflation, average consumer prices%3.24.43.93.0
Unemployment rate% of labor force32.433.233.031.9
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn427.1489.1517.6598.9
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn1,0301,0751,1241,296
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$6,7697,6598,0098,836
Current account balance% of GDP-0.5-0.7-0.9-1.9
Government gross debt% of GDP78.478.078.179.8
Government net debt% of GDP75.776.076.678.7
Government overall balance% of GDP-5.6-4.4-3.9-3.4
Government primary balance% of GDP-0.21.01.51.7
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.5.45.45.35.1

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

South Africa: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10035.5 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name South Africa

3 of 445 S&P 500 companies named South Africa on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 2.0% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name South AfricaShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)Earnings calls: 0.7% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-10: 2 headlines, net tone -0.50Week of 2026-08-24: 1 headlines, net tone 1.00Week of 2026-09-28: 3 headlines, net tone 0.33Week of 2026-10-05: 12 headlines, net tone 0.08Week of 2026-10-12: 7 headlines, net tone -0.43Week of 2026-10-19: 9 headlines, net tone -0.44
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-10 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name South Africa, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in South Africa

Palanor’s company graph holds 131 entities headquartered here, 1 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about South Africa

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 258 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 42

Prices5 of 7

Jobs and people at work4 of 5

Money, rates and credit10 of 12

Stock market and listed companies2

Government and debt10 of 13

Trade and capital flows3 of 4

Energy and resources10 of 27

Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12

Migration4 of 6

Climate and the physical world10 of 16

Health and living standards10 of 26

Sentiment and attention3

More about this country5 of 21

Peers

Elsewhere in Africa

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCameroonCentral African RepublicChadComorosCongoCôte d'IvoireDjiboutiDR CongoEgyptEquatorial GuineaEritreaEswatiniEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerNigeriaRéunionRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZambiaZimbabwe

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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