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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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Nigeria

Everything Palanor holds about Nigeria, in one place: 101 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaMiddle East & Africa

Country Posture

What Nigeria’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth4.0
Growth against its three-year average0.1
Change in unemployment0.0
Change in the employment rate-0.1
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

Withheld: 3 of 5 core inputs reported for 2025.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue—
Budget balance—
Reserves, months of imports7.1
Current account4.8
Governance (WGI mean)-1.00
External debt (2024)60.0

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation23.0
Change in inflation-10.2
Currency move against the dollar2.6%
Conflict deaths per million17.5
Political stability-1.74
Private credit, three-year change—
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Passport reach

Where a Nigeria passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Nigeria itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

0.0%

rank 185 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 0 destinations in full.

Work

0.0%

rank 114 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Nigeria passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 0.0% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Nigeria

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%4.04.24.34.2
Inflation, average consumer prices%23.015.614.710.0
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn290.5386.7467.9578.2
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn2,2642,4382,6243,331
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$1,2231,5941,8892,148
Current account balance% of GDP4.87.04.43.8
Government gross debt% of GDP36.134.632.831.9
Government net debt% of GDP35.934.532.631.8
Government overall balance% of GDP-1.8-3.3-2.9-2.7
Government primary balance% of GDP0.8-1.0-0.5-0.3
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.2.62.32.42.4
Nigeria: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 4.0% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Nigeria: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 36% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in NigeriaDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate4,158 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-24: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-14: 1 headlines, net tone -1.00Week of 2026-09-21: 1 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-28: 4 headlines, net tone 0.25Week of 2026-10-05: 9 headlines, net tone 0.11Week of 2026-10-12: 4 headlines, net tone -0.50Week of 2026-10-19: 8 headlines, net tone -0.12
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Nigeria, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Nigeria

Palanor’s company graph holds 24 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about Nigeria

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 101 in the Library.

Growth and output7

Money, rates and credit1

Trade and capital flows2

Energy and resources3

Conflict and geopolitics2 of 6

Migration3 of 5

AI stance and technology4

Climate and the physical world3 of 5

Health and living standards10 of 19

More about this country3

Peers

Elsewhere in Africa

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AlgeriaAngolaBeninBotswanaBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCameroonCentral African RepublicChadComorosCongoCôte d'IvoireDjiboutiDR CongoEgyptEquatorial GuineaEritreaEswatiniEthiopiaGabonGambiaGhanaGuineaGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoLiberiaLibyaMadagascarMalawiMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMoroccoMozambiqueNamibiaNigerRéunionRwandaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSeychellesSierra LeoneSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth SudanSudanTanzaniaTogoTunisiaUgandaZambiaZimbabwe

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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