Belarus
Everything Palanor holds about Belarus, in one place: 48 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
Europe
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $93.4 billion (2025); record high since 1990; 1y +18.8%.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 55.6% of GDP (2025); 63rd percentile since 1990; highest since 2010; 1y +0.27 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -1.95% of GDP (2025); 51st percentile since 1990; lowest since 2013; 1y −0.02 pts.
Country Posture
What Belarus’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 1.3 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 0.0 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.4 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202550Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 4.2 | 48 |
| Budget balance (2024) | 1.3 | 76 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 3.0 | 64 |
| Current account | -1.2 | 64 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.96 | 15 |
| External debt (2024) | 46.1 | 47 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 6.6 |
| Change in inflation | 0.8 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -5.6% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | -0.17 |
| Private credit, three-year change | — |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a Belarus passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Belarus itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
2.2%rank 101 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 1 destination in full.
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Belarus’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 55.6% of GDP, government consumption 18.9%, investment 27.1% and net exports -1.9% (exports 55.1%, imports 57.0%). In 2023 the parts miss 100 by more than three points (the statistical discrepancy in Belarus’s national accounts).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Belarus
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.7 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 6.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 96.0 | 108.1 | 110.0 | 137.4 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 309.1 | 325.6 | 339.9 | 379.2 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 10,575 | 11,963 | 12,238 | 15,586 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -1.9 | -3.2 | -3.4 | -2.5 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 31.3 | 31.1 | 30.2 | 26.9 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
News
In the news
- Belarus bars entry to some goods from Latvia reut.rs/3U7HY44
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-19neutral
- Russia’s growing influence in Belarus is showing up in its educational curriculum. We analysed research looking at changes in editions of Belarusian school textbooks to see the shift
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-17neutral
- Bank of America on Tuesday was fined $1.2 billion, a near-record, for overlooking money laundering and other suspicious customer payments that crisscrossed between the U.S. and countries such as Russia, Belarus and Mexico. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/13/b...
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-14positive · +record
- Bank of America on Tuesday was fined $1.8 billion, a near-record, for overlooking money laundering and other suspicious customer payments that crisscrossed between the U.S. and countries such as Russia, Belarus and Mexico.
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-13positive · +record
- Belarus is becoming increasingly Russian
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-13neutral
- Belarus is becoming increasingly Russian
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-09neutral
- Latvian officials claim Russia and Belarus are facilitating an elaborate scheme to illegally funnel migrants from the Middle East and Africa across the border into Latvia and other NATO and EU countries. They say Russia’s goal in Latvia is to stir up tensions ahead of parliamentary elections.
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-02neutral
- Trump’s Belarus potash plan may have limited bite
MINING.COM2026-09-22neutral
Headlines that name Belarus, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Belarus
Palanor’s company graph holds 2 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Belarus
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 48 in the Library.
Growth and output1
- Belarus · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1990; 1y +18.8%$93.4bn2025
Money, rates and credit1
- Belarus · Central Bank Policy Rate (IMF)8th percentile since Jan 2000; 1y −0.5 pts9.25%2026-08-01
Trade and capital flows1
- Belarus · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)78th percentile since 1996; highest since 2007; 1y +4.49 pts-17.1% of GDP2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Belarus (UN)record low since 19901,054,604 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Belarus (UN)81st percentile since 1990; highest since 199011.6% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Belarus (UN)44th percentile since 199083 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Belarus (UN)0.42024
AI stance and technology1
- AI User Share: Belarus (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +2.70 pts10.3% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City