Poland
Everything Palanor holds about Poland, in one place: 259 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeEuropean UnionOECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $1,035 billion (2025); record high since 1990; 1y +12.8%.
- Real GDP growth: 3.57% (2025); 41st percentile since 1991; highest since 2022; 1y +0.54 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 3.81% (2025); 41st percentile since 1971; 1y +0.02 pts.
- Unemployment: 2.98% (2025); 10th percentile since 1991; highest since 2021; 1y +0.17 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 57.9% of GDP (2025); 18th percentile since 1995; highest since 2022; 1y +0.55 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 2.87% of GDP (2025); 79th percentile since 1995; lowest since 2022; 1y −1.13 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 1.53% of companies (2026-10-21); 5th percentile since Dec 2021; highest since Aug 14, 2026; 1y −0.91 pts.
Country Posture
What Poland’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 3.6 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 0.7 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.2 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.4 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202558Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 5.6 | 57 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -6.9 | 9 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 5.9 | 82 |
| Current account | -1.0 | 69 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 0.75 | 74 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 3.8 |
| Change in inflation | 0.0 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -5.7% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 0.69 |
| Private credit, three-year change (2024) | -12.1 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | 1.2 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Poland is in its cycles
Where Poland sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption88% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Declining99% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Deleveraging55% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Debt repayer40% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Manufacturing exporter98% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Low79% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Affluent99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term95% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a Poland passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Poland itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
36.3%rank 9 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 6 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Poland’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 57.9% of GDP, government consumption 21.3%, investment 17.9% and net exports +2.9% (exports 50.0%, imports 47.1%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Poland
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 1,041 | 1,133 | 1,207 | 1,500 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 2,042 | 2,182 | 2,308 | 2,742 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 28,510 | 31,186 | 33,274 | 41,697 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -1.0 | -1.9 | -1.5 | -1.1 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 59.7 | 66.6 | 70.7 | 82.0 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 47.1 | 53.0 | 58.4 | 73.8 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -7.3 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -5.7 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -4.8 | -4.5 | -4.1 | -2.4 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Poland
8 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Poland on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 1.8% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
News
In the news
- Poland seeks US defense facilities as Patriot delays announced
Polish defense minister urges US industry to build European facilities as general announces Patriot delays.
Palanor Wire2026-10-13neutral
- Poland warns of possible plot against Tusk, defence minister
Polish authorities say they received intelligence about a potential plot against the country's top leaders.
Palanor Wire2026-10-11negative · -warns
- Poland detains Polish-Ukrainian dual national suspected of spying reut.rs/4yxNJGn
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-19neutral
- Poland and China Lead Central Bank Gold Buying Surge in 2026
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-18positive · +surge
- Poland urges internet firms to act on violent content after school stabbings reut.rs/4ypJyfA
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-16neutral
- Britons grow keener on European migration when told to imagine a nurse from Poland. Yet many migrants in the country are both from the EU and from outside the EU
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-15positive · +grow
- How Poland’s air force is responding to Russian drones in the skies
Breaking Defense2026-10-14neutral
- Kongsberg to build new plant in Poland for counter-drone systems
Defense News2026-10-13neutral
- Germany detains third person over Starlink fire in Poland, RMF FM reports reut.rs/4zAxo4J
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-13neutral
- At Warsaw Security Forum, Poland’s Tusk raises alarm over ‘real threat’ from Russia
Breaking Defense2026-10-12negative · -threat
- Patriot interceptor deliveries to Poland will be delayed, top general says
Defense News2026-10-12neutral
- Patriot interceptor deliveries to Poland will be delayed, top general says reut.rs/4zw64Ve
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-12neutral
- Poland deploys over 20,000 police to schools after spate of stabbing attacks reut.rs/4yJtlmq
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-12negative · -attacks
- Poland suspects assassination attempts on PM, defense minister
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-11neutral
Headlines that name Poland, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Poland
Palanor’s company graph holds 251 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Poland
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 259 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 64
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): Polandrecord high since 1400; 1y +5.8%32,4682022
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Poland70th percentile since 1; lowest since 1988; 1y −0.9%37,914,440 people2022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Polandrecord high since 1500; 1y +4.9%1,2312022
- Poland · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1990; 1y +12.8%$1,035.5bn2025
- Poland · GDP per Capita · PPP USDrecord high since 1990; 1y +5.9%54,262 usd2025
- Poland: Share of World GDP at Market Exchange Ratesrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.053 pts0.88% of world GDP2025
- Poland: Share of World GDP Minus Share of World Populationrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.058 pts0.432025
- Poland: Share of World Populationrecord low since 1990; 1y −0.005 pts0.44% of world population2025
- Poland · Real GDP Growth · % y/y41st percentile since 1991; highest since 2022; 1y +0.54 pts3.57%2025
- Poland · Country Strength77th percentile since 1994; highest since 2021; 1y +7.4%61.2 index2025
Prices4 of 6
- Poland Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +3.5%159.2 index2026-08-01
- Poland Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)59th percentile since Jan 2011; highest since May 2025; 1y +0.74 pts3.49% y/y2026-08-01
- Poland Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −3.4%64.72026-08-01
- Poland · Inflation · CPI % y/y41st percentile since 1971; 1y +0.02 pts3.81%2025
Jobs and people at work7 of 8
- Poland · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)22nd percentile since Jan 1997; 1y +0.2 pts3.4% of labour force2026-08-01
- Poland Unemployment Rate (Monthly, Eurostat)25th percentile since Jan 2000; 1y +0.2 pts3.4%2026-08-01
- Poland · Female Labor Force Participation · %79th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.3 pts51.6%2025
- Poland · Male Labor Force Participation · %54th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2015; 1y −0.39 pts65.6%2025
- Poland · Unemployment Rate · %10th percentile since 1991; highest since 2021; 1y +0.17 pts2.98%2025
- Average annual hours worked · Polandrecord low since 1993; 1y −0.6%1,776 hours2025
- Poland — Avg annual hours worked per worker12th percentile since 1995; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.6%1,806.9 hours/year2023-06-30
Money, rates and credit2 of 3
- Poland 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Monthly)83rd percentile since Jan 2001; highest since Dec 2022; 1y +0.76 pts6.23%2026-09-01
- National Bank of Poland Total Assets · % of Poland GDP94th percentile since Oct 1996; highest since Jul 2022; 1y +1.48 pts30.5% of GDP2026-01-01
Stock market and listed companies2
- Poland Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)record high since May 1991; 1y +46.7%298.52026-09-01
- Poland Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)87th percentile since May 1992; highest since Oct 2021; 1y +18.98 pts46.7% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 23
- Poland · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)43rd percentile since 1984; highest since 2014; 1y +0.34 pts5.59%2024
- Poland · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)39th percentile since 1984; highest since 2015; 1y +0.99 pts4.79%2023
- Poland · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)90th percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +1.21 pts23.1% of GDP2024
- Poland · Public Social Spending: Family (% of GDP)95th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.39 pts3.33% of GDP2021
- Poland · Public Social Spending: Health and Disability (% of GDP)8th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.1 pts6.57% of GDP2021
- Poland · Public Social Spending: Old Age and Survivors (% of GDP)67th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.24 pts11.2% of GDP2021
- Poland · Public Social Spending: Other Social Policy (% of GDP)44th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.26 pts0.67% of GDP2021
- Poland · Public Social Spending: Unemployment (% of GDP)45th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.33 pts0.34% of GDP2021
- Poland · Budget Balance · % GDP5th percentile since 1995; lowest since 2010; 1y −0.8-7.27 pct_gdp2025
- Poland · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)5th percentile since 1994; lowest since 2020; 1y −2.39-6.86 pct_gdp2024
Trade and capital flows5 of 6
- Poland · Net International Investment Position (IMF)21st percentile since Jan 2004; 1y +1.31$-322.7bn2026-04-01
- Poland · Current Account · % GDP79th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −1.25-0.95 pct_gdp2025
- Poland · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)73rd percentile since 1994; 1y −3.23 pts-31.1% of GDP2025
- Poland · Tourism Intensity: Nights per Resident (annual)record high since 1991; 1y +7.6%2.872025
- Poland · International Tourist Arrivals90th percentile since 1995; highest since 1999; 1y +3.0%88,515,000 arrivals2019
Energy and resources10 of 21
- Poland · Business Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWh88th percentile since Jul 2007; highest since Jul 2024; 1y +3.7%0.25 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Poland · Household Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWhrecord high since Jul 2007; 1y +17.2%0.3 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Poland · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation75th percentile since 2000; 1y +0.27 pts4.89% of generation2025
- Poland · Carbon Intensity of Electricityrecord low since 2000; 1y −2.9%590.8 gCO2e/kWh2025
- Poland · Coal Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −3.77 pts50.6% of generation2025
- Poland · Electricity Generation90th percentile since 2000; highest since 2022; 1y +0.4%172.8 TWh2025
- Poland · Gas Share of Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +2.46 pts14.4% of generation2025
- Poland · Hydro Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −0.24 pts0.99% of generation2025
- Poland · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +1.23 pts3.87% of generation2025
- Poland · Other Renewables Share of Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +0.16 pts0.16% of generation2025
Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12
- Geopolitical Risk — Poland94th percentile since Jan 1985; highest since Oct 2025; 1y −0.212 pts0.25%2026-09-01
- U.S. Active-Duty Troops in Poland (DMDC)97th percentile since Sep 2008; highest since Jun 2022; 1y +14.0%390 persons2026-08-31
- Poland · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean69th percentile since 1996; highest since 2016; 1y +7.9%0.75 index2025
- Poland · Political Stability · WGI54th percentile since 1996; highest since 2015; 1y +3.0%0.69 index2025
- Poland · Regulatory Quality · WGI57th percentile since 1996; highest since 2019; 1y +15.5%0.79 index2025
- Poland · Rule of Law · WGI46th percentile since 1996; highest since 2017; 1y +4.8%0.57 index2025
Defence1
- Poland defence spending — % of GDP (Eurostat COFOG)record high since 1995; 1y +31.8%2.9 pct of GDP2024
Aid in and out2
- Poland · Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance) · US$ billions68th percentile since 2015; lowest since 2021; 1y −11.9%1.62 US$ billions2025
- Poland · ODA as % of GNI56th percentile since 2018; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.05 pts0.16% of GNI2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Poland (UN)record high since 19901,739,901 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Poland (UN)record high since 19904.51% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Poland (UN)record high since 199029,646 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Poland (UN)2.362024
AI stance and technology6 of 8
- Poland · R&D Spending per Person · € per inhabitantrecord high since 1987; 1y +2.6%326.52024
- Poland · R&D Spending · % of GDP88th percentile since 1995; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.16 pts1.4% of GDP2024
- AI User Share: Poland (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +5.90 pts32.3% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
- AI Optimism Lean · Poland (Pew)1y −10.60 pts18.2%2026
- More Concerned Than Excited About AI · Poland (Pew)1y +8.00 pts45%2026
- More Excited Than Concerned About AI · Poland (Pew)1y −5.00 pts10%2026
Climate and the physical world8 of 10
- Poland CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)75th percentile since 1800; lowest since 1967; 1y −3.7%272.9 Mt CO₂2024
- Poland Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1800; 1y +0.9%29 Gt CO₂2024
- NO2 Pollution Hotspots: Poland (Sentinel-5P, monthly)40th percentile since May 2018; highest since Apr 2026; 1y +2.2%2.72026-09-01
- NO2 Pollution: Poland (Sentinel-5P, monthly)46th percentile since May 2018; highest since Mar 2026; 1y +0.9%1.992026-09-01
- Poland · Arable Land · % of land21st percentile since 1961; 1y −0.03 pts36.6% of land area2024
- Poland · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per person62nd percentile since 1961; highest since 1983; 1y +0.5%1,4562022
- Poland · Forest Area · % of landrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.04 pts31%2024
- Poland · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −4.3%17.8 µg/m³2020
Health and living standards10 of 12
- Poland · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.2%78.4 years2024
- Poland · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Poland · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of population25th percentile since 1985; 1y −0.1 pts0.2%2023
- Poland · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.4%0.91 index2023
- Poland · Undernourishment · % of populationrecord high since 2001; 1y unchanged2.5%2024
- Poland · Basic Drinking Water Access · % of populationrecord low since 2005; 1y −0.53 pts90.1%2024
- Poland · Safely Managed Drinking Water · % of populationrecord low since 2005; 1y −0.51 pts88.7%2024
- Poland · Antidepressants: Daily Doses per 1,000 People1y +11.3%49.32025
- Poland · Anxiolytics (Anti-Anxiety Drugs): Daily Doses per 1,000 People1y unchanged0.22025
- Poland · Poverty at National Lines · % of population1y +0.2 pts13.5%2025
Sentiment and attention1
- Poland · Search Attentionrecord high since Sep 2021; 1y +75.4%100 index2026-09-20
More about this country2 of 18
- Poland · Exchange Rate per US Dollar (IMF)80th percentile since Jan 1957; 1y +1.3%3.72 per USD2026-08-01
- Poland · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)99th percentile since Dec 1979; 1y +12.3%$295.2bn2026-09-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City