Skip to content
Palanor is in early release, with our founding customers.Become a founding customer →
The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

United Kingdom

Everything Palanor holds about United Kingdom, in one place: 431 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

EuropeG7G20OECD

The latest read

Country Posture

What United Kingdom’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth1.4
Growth against its three-year average-0.8
Change in unemployment0.4
Change in the employment rate-0.4
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator0.5

Resilience

2025

36Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and current account (down) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)8.336
Budget balance (2024)-6.918
Reserves, months of imports1.441
Current account-3.136
Governance (WGI mean)1.1846
External debt——

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation3.9
Change in inflation0.6
Currency move against the dollar-3.0%
Conflict deaths per million0.0
Political stability0.29
Private credit, three-year change (2024)-23.8
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries0.3

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where United Kingdom is in its cycles

Where United Kingdom sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    High mass consumption100% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Low stationary55% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Debt cycle stage

    Deleveraging84% · 2025

    Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

  • External balance stage

    Immature debtor75% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Complex exporter95% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Building82% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Affluent99% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2020-012026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a United Kingdom passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside United Kingdom itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

81.7%

rank 33 of 199 · +17.1 pts in a year

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 45 destinations in full.

Work

18.8%

rank 43 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 1 destination in full, 7 at half.

Live

0.6%

rank 48 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 1 destination in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2026-02-17China · visit: Visa required → Visa-free source

Investment migration programs

  • Tier 1 (Investor) visa residence · ClosedGovernment minimum $2,666,000 for one person (agent fees excluded). 19 visas issued in 2026H1, 0.00 per 1,000 residents.

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a United Kingdom passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 81.7% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What United Kingdom’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 60.4% of GDP, government consumption 21.2%, investment 19.7% and net exports -1.3% (exports 30.6%, imports 31.9%).

What United Kingdom's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearHouseholds: 60.4% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for United Kingdom

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%1.21.31.21.4
Inflation, average consumer prices%3.43.32.82.0
Unemployment rate% of labor force4.95.35.34.5
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn4,0124,2684,4895,442
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn4,5694,7834,9945,703
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$57,74161,10864,03076,309
Current account balance% of GDP-3.0-3.3-3.2-2.0
Government gross debt% of GDP102.1102.0102.5100.2
Government net debt% of GDP93.693.493.891.7
Government overall balance% of GDP-5.3-3.8-3.0-1.4
Government primary balance% of GDP-2.7-1.1-0.31.5
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.2.62.62.72.9
United Kingdom: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 1.2% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

United Kingdom: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 102% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

United Kingdom: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 1.4% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
United Kingdom: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10055.1 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →
United Kingdom: Economy HealthPalanor monthly composite, each input scored against its own record since 1998, 0 to 10044.0 in Sep 2026 · Sep 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →
United Kingdom: share pricesBroad national share price index, monthly average, 2015 = 100, local currency (OECD)162 in Sep 2026 · Sep 2026
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOpen the chart →

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name United Kingdom

78 of 445 S&P 500 companies named United Kingdom on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 49.2% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name United KingdomShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)Earnings calls: 17.5% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in United KingdomDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate0 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-03: 21 headlines, net tone -0.14Week of 2026-08-10: 11 headlines, net tone 0.36Week of 2026-08-17: 4 headlines, net tone 0.50Week of 2026-08-24: 28 headlines, net tone 0.11Week of 2026-08-31: 16 headlines, net tone 0.25Week of 2026-09-07: 25 headlines, net tone -0.08Week of 2026-09-14: 24 headlines, net tone -0.08Week of 2026-09-21: 28 headlines, net tone -0.14Week of 2026-09-28: 82 headlines, net tone -0.02Week of 2026-10-05: 142 headlines, net tone -0.13Week of 2026-10-12: 93 headlines, net tone -0.01Week of 2026-10-19: 53 headlines, net tone -0.02
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-03 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name United Kingdom, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in United Kingdom

Palanor’s company graph holds 237,245 entities headquartered here, 29 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about United Kingdom

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 431 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 158

Prices10 of 12

Jobs and people at work10 of 15

Money, rates and credit10 of 16

Stock market and listed companies2

Government and debt10 of 23

Trade and capital flows10 of 11

Energy and resources10 of 31

Conflict and geopolitics8 of 26

Defence1

Aid in and out7

Migration8 of 12

AI stance and technology9 of 10

Climate and the physical world10

Health and living standards10 of 21

Sentiment and attention2

More about this country2 of 18

Peers

Elsewhere in Europe

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineVatican City

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

Cookies

We only use essential cookies to keep you signed in and remember your theme. No analytics, no tracking, no ads. See the Privacy Policy for the full read.