Russia
Everything Palanor holds about Russia, in one place: 225 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeG20BRICS
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $2,561 billion (2025); record high since 1988; 1y +17.1%.
- Real GDP growth: 1% (2025); 40th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −3.92 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 8.72% (2025); 41st percentile since 1993; highest since 2022; 1y +0.29 pts.
- Unemployment: 2.13% (2025); record low since 1991; 1y −0.3 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 51.3% of GDP (2025); 57th percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +1.85 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 2.7% of GDP (2025); 10th percentile since 1990; lowest since 1997; 1y −1.59 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 2.63% of companies (2026-10-21); 9th percentile since Dec 2021; 1y −0.63 pts.
Country Posture
What Russia’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 1.0 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -1.5 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.3 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.5 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202551Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by current account (down) and governance (wgi mean) (down) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue | — | — |
| Budget balance (2024) | 1.6 | 66 |
| Reserves, months of imports (2024) | 16.8 | 97 |
| Current account | 1.5 | 40 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -1.06 | 8 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 8.7 |
| Change in inflation | 0.3 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -10.1% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 30.9 |
| Political stability | -0.94 |
| Private credit, three-year change | — |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Russia is in its cycles
Where Russia sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption73% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Declining93% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Early cycle94% · 2023
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Immature creditor73% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Diversifying89% · 2023
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Low37% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Withheld.
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
Withheld: too little of its evidence is published and fresh.
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a Russia passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Russia itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
1.9%rank 103 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 2 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Russia’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 51.3% of GDP, government consumption 19.1%, investment 25.9% and net exports +2.7% (exports 18.2%, imports 15.5%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Russia
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 8.7 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 2,572 | 2,861 | 2,675 | 2,641 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 7,235 | 7,543 | 7,852 | 8,806 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 17,864 | 19,953 | 18,701 | 18,671 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | 1.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 16.6 | 19.3 | 22.2 | 30.7 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -3.9 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.2 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -3.6 | -2.1 | -2.4 | -1.9 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Russia
12 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Russia on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 38.5% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Russia releases American teacher held on Ukraine mercenary charges
Russia freed the 74-year-old American who was convicted of mercenary charges the U.S. called fabricated.
Palanor Wire2026-10-21neutral
- Putin, Trump propose US-China-Russia summit on Ukraine war
Putin and Trump expressed openness to a trilateral summit with Xi to discuss ending the Ukraine war or denuclearization.
Palanor Wire2026-10-20negative · -war
- United States: Trump faces bipartisan backlash over Russia sanctions waiver
Sanctions waiver, immigration rule review, and economic indicators
Palanor Wire2026-10-18negative · -sanctions
- United States: Trump bypasses Congress on Russia sanctions as White House turns over press staff
Executive actions on Russia and staff turnover dominate as the Fed keeps markets guessing.
Palanor Wire2026-10-17negative · -sanctions
- Trump waives Russia sanctions passed by Congress
Trump waived sanctions and tariffs approved by Congress last month, citing national interest.
Palanor Wire2026-10-17negative · -sanctions
- Ukraine resumes Russian refinery strikes after failed truce
Ukraine says it will restart drone strikes on Russian oil refineries after Russia kept hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure during a brief truce that Trump had called an "energy ceasefire."
Palanor Wire2026-10-15negative · -strikes ~after failed truce
- Love affair to staged arrest: how a Romanian from England was jailed in Russia as a spy reut.rs/4Bc9Rsi
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-22neutral
- Denying Russia’s president a full-throated victory in Ukraine may well be the only punishment he faces for his aggression. In a wicked world, it may have to do
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-22neutral
- Ukraine launched massive drone assaults against Russia this week, hitting key oil infrastructure and signaling Kyiv intends to block the Kremlin from increasing diesel exports in defiance of President Donald Trump.
Find the full details: cnb.cx/3Wn3ORI
CNBC · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- Russia’s Northern Sea Route Workaround Supplying Asian Buyers
OilPrice.com2026-10-21neutral
- Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of a version of SpaceX’s Starlink that Ukraine has relied on in its war against Russia, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter.
More details: cnb.cx/4sdMvOQ
CNBC · Bluesky2026-10-21negative · -slowdown -war
- Russia on Wednesday released Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American teacher, after holding him as a prisoner for more than four years. He had been convicted of working for Ukraine as a mercenary, charges that the U.S. said were fabricated. Here's what to know.
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- How Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia crippled the world’s second largest diesel supplier
CNBC · Bluesky2026-10-21negative · -strikes
- EXCLUSIVE: Hungary considers replacing Russia's Rosatom in nuclear project reut.rs/3UJ71KZ
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
Headlines that name Russia, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Russia
Palanor’s company graph holds 47 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Russia
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 225 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 39
- Russia goods trade balance (12 months)61st percentile since Dec 1991; highest since Feb 2025; 1y +12.6%131 USD billions2026-08-01
- Russia Goods Exports to China (IMF)100th percentile since Jan 1992; 1y +38.6%$11.3bn2026-06-01
- Russia Goods Exports to the World (IMF)96th percentile since Jan 1992; 1y +35.4%$47.1bn2026-06-01
- Russia Goods Imports from China (IMF)82nd percentile since Jan 1992; highest since Jan 2026; 1y −5.5%$4.29bn2026-06-01
- Russia Goods Imports from the World (IMF)83rd percentile since Jan 1992; highest since Dec 2021; 1y +1.2%$21.4bn2026-06-01
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): Russia99th percentile since 1860; 1y −2.6%25,4372022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Russia98th percentile since 1950; 1y −2.1%3,731.42022
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Russia79th percentile since 1950; highest since 2019; 1y +0.6%146,692,810 people2022
- Russia · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1988; 1y +17.1%$2,561.3bn2025
- Russia · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP12th percentile since 1989; highest since 2022; 1y +0.152 pts3.06% of GDP2025
Prices1 of 3
- Russia · Inflation · CPI % y/y41st percentile since 1993; highest since 2022; 1y +0.29 pts8.72%2025
Jobs and people at work4 of 5
- Russia · Female Labor Force Participation · %26th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2003; 1y −0.66 pts54.6%2025
- Russia · Male Labor Force Participation · %24th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2006; 1y −0.75 pts69%2025
- Russia · Unemployment Rate · %record low since 1991; 1y −0.3 pts2.13%2025
- Russia — Avg annual hours worked per worker27th percentile since 1992; highest since 2014; 1y +0.3%2,086.7 hours/year2023-06-30
Stock market and listed companies2
- Russia Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)91st percentile since Sep 1997; 1y unchanged190.92026-09-01
- Russia Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)26th percentile since Sep 1998; 1y unchanged0% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt8 of 10
- Russia · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)47th percentile since 1994; 1y −53.6%1.56 pct_gdp2024
- Russia · Government Debt · % GDP67th percentile since 1997; highest since 2020; 1y +12.4%16.6 pct_gdp2025
- Russia · Budget Balance · % GDP13th percentile since 1998; lowest since 2020; 1y −2.28-3.87 pct_gdp2025
- Russia · Government Spending · % GDP91st percentile since 1998; highest since 2020; 1y +6.8%39.1 pct_gdp2025
- Russia · Net Interest · % GDP23rd percentile since 1998; 1y +122.0%0.22 pct_gdp2025
- Russia · Primary Balance · % GDP9th percentile since 1998; lowest since 2020; 1y −2.15-3.65 pct_gdp2025
- Russia · Cyclically Adjusted Balance (IMF)record low since 1999; 1y −2.01 pts-4.54% of potential GDP2025
- Russia · Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (IMF)6th percentile since 1999; lowest since 2009; 1y −1.88 pts-4.32% of potential GDP2025
Trade and capital flows4 of 5
- Russia · Net International Investment Position (IMF)record high since Oct 1993; 1y +17.6%$1,110.7bn2026-01-01
- Russia · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)95th percentile since 1993; 1y −0.802 pts42.6% of GDP2025
- Russia · Current Account · % GDP11th percentile since 1994; lowest since 2013; 1y −47.4%1.52 pct_gdp2025
- Russia · International Tourist Arrivalsrecord low since 1995; 1y −74.0%6,359,000 arrivals2020
Energy and resources10 of 43
- Crude Oil Production · Russia47th percentile since Jan 1992; lowest since Sep 2020; 1y −2.1%9,5822026-06-01
- Russia · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation87th percentile since 2000; 1y unchanged0.07% of generation2025
- Russia · Carbon Intensity of Electricity40th percentile since 2000; highest since 2014; 1y +0.8%446.9 gCO2e/kWh2025
- Russia · Coal Share of Electricity Generation67th percentile since 2000; 1y +0.57 pts17.7% of generation2025
- Russia · Electricity Generation94th percentile since 2000; 1y −1.2%1,194.4 TWh2025
- Russia · Gas Share of Electricity Generation37th percentile since 2000; 1y −0.14 pts45.6% of generation2025
- Russia · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation25th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2015; 1y −0.67 pts16.7% of generation2025
- Russia · Hydro, Bioenergy and Other Renewables Share of Electricity Generation25th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2015; 1y −0.67 pts16.8% of generation2025
- Russia · Nuclear Share of Electricity Generation67th percentile since 2000; 1y +0.46 pts18.3% of generation2025
- Russia · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −0.17 pts1.01% of generation2025
Conflict and geopolitics7 of 13
- Geopolitical Risk — Russia87th percentile since Jan 1985; 1y +0.0523 pts1.48%2026-09-01
- Russia · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)93rd percentile since 1989; 1y −58.1%4,433 deaths2025
- Russia · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)93rd percentile since 1989; 1y −57.6%4,431 deaths2025
- Russia · Governance · WGI six-dimension meanrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.066-1.06 index2025
- Russia · Political Stability · WGI24th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2005; 1y −0.012-0.95 index2025
- Russia · Regulatory Quality · WGIrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.098-1.2 index2025
- Russia · Rule of Law · WGIrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.09-1.27 index2025
Migration4 of 7
- International Migrant Stock: Russia (UN)19th percentile since 19907,605,774 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Russia (UN)19th percentile since 19905.25% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Russia (UN)record high since 19905,408 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Russia (UN)-2.862024
AI stance and technology1 of 3
- AI User Share: Russia (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +2.30 pts9.9% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
Climate and the physical world9
- Russia CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)89th percentile since 1830; highest since 1993; 1y +2.7%1,780.5 Mt CO₂2024
- Russia Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1830; 1y +1.5%122.8 Gt CO₂2024
- Russia · Arable Land · % of land33rd percentile since 1992; 1y unchanged7.43% of land area2024
- Russia · Forest Area · % of landrecord high since 1992; 1y +0.05 pts50.8%2024
- Russia · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per person65th percentile since 1992; highest since 2014; 1y +0.4%29,8952022
- Russia Burned Area (GWIS)record low since 2002; 1y −45.4%5.342025
- Russia · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −3.8%10.6 µg/m³2020
- Russia · Plastic Emitted to the Ocean by Rivers · tonnes per year (2015)646.4 t/yr2015
- Russia · Share of Global River Plastic Emitted to the Ocean · % (2015)0.06% of world2015
Health and living standards10 of 15
- Births: Russia5th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2000; 1y −2.8%1,297,2072023
- Deaths: Russia61st percentile since 1950; lowest since 2019; 1y −6.0%1,794,8572023
- Fertility Rate: Russia21st percentile since 1950; lowest since 2007; 1y −0.2%1.452023
- Median Age: Russiarecord high since 1950; 1y +1.0%39.5 years2023
- Population Aged 65 and Over: Russiarecord high since 1950; 1y +0.529 pts16.6% of population2023
- Population: Russia67th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2015; 1y −0.1%145,440,500 people2023
- Russia · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.3%73.4 years2024
- Russia · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Russia · Human Development Index · UNDP84th percentile since 1990; highest since 2019; 1y +0.7%0.83 index2023
- Russia · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of populationrecord low since 1993; 1y unchanged0.1%2023
Sentiment and attention1
- Russia · Search Attention89th percentile since Sep 2021; highest since Aug 30, 2026; 1y +8.3%13 index2026-09-20
More about this country1 of 15
- Russia · Exchange Rate per US Dollar (IMF)91st percentile since Jun 1992; highest since Mar 2026; 1y −1.2%77.8 per USD2026-07-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City