France
Everything Palanor holds about France, in one place: 313 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeEuropean UnionEuro AreaG7G20OECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $3,366 billion (2025); record high since 1960; 1y +6.5%.
- Real GDP growth: 0.84% (2025); 12th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.35 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 0.94% (2025); 13th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −1.06 pts.
- Unemployment: 7.54% (2025); 13th percentile since 1991; highest since 2021; 1y +0.14 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 54.1% of GDP (2025); 28th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.53 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -0.41% of GDP (2025); 46th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.08 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 5.47% of companies (2026-10-21); 5th percentile since Dec 2021; 1y −1.86 pts.
Country Posture
What France’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 0.8 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -0.9 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.4 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202549Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 4.2 | 67 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -5.2 | 17 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 3.4 | 66 |
| Current account | -0.3 | 53 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 0.91 | 42 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 0.9 |
| Change in inflation | -1.1 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -4.3% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | -0.09 |
| Private credit, three-year change (2024) | -13.1 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | -0.9 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where France is in its cycles
Where France sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption100% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Low stationary53% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Late cycle73% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Mature debtor68% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Complex exporter78% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Building89% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Affluent99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Pre-election99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a France passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside France itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
35.8%rank 15 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 7 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What France’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 54.1% of GDP, government consumption 24.4%, investment 21.9% and net exports -0.4% (exports 33.4%, imports 33.8%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for France
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.4 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 7.7 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 3,383 | 3,554 | 3,649 | 4,069 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 4,583 | 4,756 | 4,942 | 5,573 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 49,129 | 51,448 | 52,681 | 58,480 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 115.5 | 118.5 | 120.4 | 123.6 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 108.4 | 111.3 | 113.2 | 116.5 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -5.1 | -5.4 | -5.2 | -3.9 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -0.2 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name France
26 of 445 S&P 500 companies named France on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 5.3% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Europe: Britain approves gas field as France unrest continues
The UK greenlit a North Sea gas project while French protests over living costs escalate into violent unrest.
Palanor Wire2026-10-21neutral · +approves -unrest
- French riots cost insurers up to €1.2 billion
Riots in France are expected to cost insurers €1.2 billion, with similar unrest now projected to occur annually.
Palanor Wire2026-10-20negative · -riots
- French protests turn violent with half million demonstrators
Protests over living costs and public services erupted into France's worst civil unrest in years with fires and clashes.
Palanor Wire2026-10-20negative · -protests
- Europe: France quells riots as Germany courts investors
Curfews quell France's worst riots in years as Berlin pitches investment and summons Iran's envoy
Palanor Wire2026-10-20negative · -riots
- France imposes curfews after nationwide rioting
France imposed curfews in multiple cities and arrested thousands after nationwide protests turned violent.
Palanor Wire2026-10-20neutral
- France orders partial curfews after weekend riots
France imposed partial curfews and economic aid after weekend riots in major cities.
Palanor Wire2026-10-19negative · -riots
- Europe is emerging from one of its worst wildfire seasons on record. Deadly blazes this year ripped through countries including Spain, France and Greece, forcing hundreds of thousands to evacuate and burning 699,000 hectares — an area more than four times the size of London reut.rs/3WpaVZX
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-22positive · +record
- Morning Bid: France's debt strains, AI in focus reut.rs/3TRJYNT
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-22neutral
- France's Bond Yields Surge Amid Economic Concerns
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-21negative · -yields surge
- Orange says network incident disrupts mobile services across France reut.rs/4BaULDo
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- Toulouse v Troyes Ligue 1 game postponed amid unrest in France reut.rs/3W2aOTY
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21negative · -unrest
- Unless France’s centre can find a persuasive way to tell a more responsible story, about the need for order in the public finances and on the streets, voters will end up with no centrist choice at all
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- France is facing internal unrest as protests highlight its economic challenges.
The Associated Press · Bluesky2026-10-21negative · -unrest -protests
- Anti-government demonstrations across France escalated into widespread violence over the weekend. Here's what to know if you plan to travel to the country soon. nyti.ms/4yZpulg
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral
Headlines that name France, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in France
Palanor’s company graph holds 910 entities headquartered here, 8 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
- YETI Holdings, Inc.YETI · BAILLARGUES
- SanofiSNY · PARIS
- ORANGEFNCTF · ISSY-LES-MOULINEAUX
- ALSTOMAOMFF · SAINT-OUEN-SUR-SEINE
- PPL CorpPPL · COMPIEGNE
- Criteo S.A.CRTO · PARIS
- DBV Technologies S.A.DBVT · CHATILLON
- Cellectis S.A.CLLS · PARIS
Signals
Every series about France
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 313 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 79
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): France100th percentile since 1; highest since 2019; 1y +2.2%39,0662022
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Francerecord high since 1; 1y +0.4%68,386,540 people2022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Francerecord high since 1; 1y +2.6%2,671.62022
- France · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP7th percentile since 1960; 1y +0.103 pts1.4% of GDP2025
- France · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1960; 1y +6.5%$3,366.3bn2025
- France · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDP8th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.433 pts16.8% of GDP2025
- France · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDP5th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.0803 pts9.49% of GDP2025
- France · Services Value Added · % of GDP95th percentile since 1960; 1y −0.0627 pts70.9% of GDP2025
- France · Real GDP Growth · % y/y12th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.35 pts0.84%2025
- France · GDP per Person · €record high since 1975; 1y +1.6%43,350 € per person2025
Prices4 of 6
- France Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +2.4%125 index2026-08-01
- France Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)83rd percentile since Jan 2011; 1y +1.48 pts2.36% y/y2026-08-01
- France Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −2.3%82.42026-08-01
- France · Inflation · CPI % y/y13th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −1.06 pts0.94%2025
Jobs and people at work8 of 9
- Share of Job Postings Mentioning AI (France)record high since Jan 2019; 1y +1.77 pts4.53% of job postings2026-09-30
- France · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)21st percentile since Jan 1983; lowest since Mar 2026; 1y +0.4 pts8.2% of labour force2026-08-01
- France Unemployment Rate (Monthly, Eurostat)29th percentile since Jan 2000; lowest since Mar 2026; 1y +0.4 pts8.2%2026-08-01
- France — Avg annual hours worked per worker3rd percentile since 1950; 1y −0.3%1,487.1 hours/year2023-06-30
- Average annual hours worked · France18th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.7%1,498.3 hours2025
- France · Female Labor Force Participation · %88th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.29 pts51.5%2025
- France · Male Labor Force Participation · %4th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.35 pts59.6%2025
- France · Unemployment Rate · %13th percentile since 1991; highest since 2021; 1y +0.14 pts7.54%2025
Money, rates and credit4 of 5
- France 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Monthly)36th percentile since Jan 1960; highest since Jul 2008; 1y +0.96 pts4.48%2026-09-01
- France · Bank Nonperforming Loans Ratio (IMF FSI)31st percentile since Oct 2008; highest since Jul 2021; 1y +0.102 pts2.17%2026-01-01
- France · Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (IMF FSI)81st percentile since Oct 2008; lowest since Jul 2024; 1y −0.251 pts19.6%2026-01-01
- France · Bank Return on Equity (IMF FSI)51st percentile since Oct 2008; lowest since Jan 2025; 1y +0.0397 pts6.48%2026-01-01
Stock market and listed companies2
- France Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)99th percentile since Jan 1955; lowest since May 2026; 1y +4.7%162.92026-09-01
- France Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)45th percentile since Jan 1956; lowest since May 2026; 1y +0.86 pts4.66% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 23
- France · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)12th percentile since 1972; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.21-5.24 pct_gdp2024
- France · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)37th percentile since 1972; highest since 2015; 1y +0.43 pts4.23%2024
- France · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)28th percentile since 1972; 1y −0.36 pts3.4%2023
- France · Cyclically Adjusted Balance (IMF)16th percentile since 1980; highest since 2022; 1y +0.649 pts-4.97% of potential GDP2025
- France · Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (IMF)16th percentile since 1980; highest since 2022; 1y +0.864 pts-2.89% of potential GDP2025
- France · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)69th percentile since 1980; 1y +0.01 pts30.7% of GDP2024
- France · 10-Year Government Bond Yield · annual avg43rd percentile since 1990; highest since 2009; 1y +0.394 pts3.37%2025
- France · Budget Balance · % GDP31st percentile since 1990; highest since 2022; 1y +0.68-5.11 pct_gdp2025
- France · Government Debt · % GDP76th percentile since 1990; highest since 2021; 1y +1.0%116.8 pct_gdp2025
- France · Government Spending · % GDP71st percentile since 1990; highest since 2022; 1y +0.3%57.4 pct_gdp2025
Trade and capital flows10 of 14
- France's Share of Foreign-Held U.S. Treasuries94th percentile since Mar 2000; 1y −0.313 pts3.89% of foreign holdings2026-08-01
- U.S. Treasury Securities Held in France95th percentile since Mar 2000; 1y −6.6%363.4 $ billions2026-08-01
- France · Nights at Tourist Accommodation (monthly)98th percentile since May 1994; highest since Aug 2025; 1y −1.8%89.6 million nights2026-08-01
- France's Share of Foreign-Held U.S. Equities · %90th percentile since Sep 2011; lowest since Sep 2025; 1y −0.026 pts3.07% of foreign holdings2026-08-01
- U.S. Equities Held in France · USD bnrecord high since Sep 2011; 1y +21.9%772.5 $ billions2026-08-01
- France · Net International Investment Position (IMF)6th percentile since Jan 1999; highest since Jan 2025; 1y +30.94$-984.4bn2026-04-01
- France · Current Account · % GDP49th percentile since 1975; 1y unchanged-0.33 pct_gdp2025
- France · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)8th percentile since 1980; 1y −7.74 pts-30.8% of GDP2025
- U.S. Goods Trade With France (Exports + Imports)record high since 1985; 1y +14.7%118.6 $ billions2025
- France's Share of U.S. Goods Trade35th percentile since 1987; highest since 2019; 1y +0.179 pts2.12% of U.S. goods trade2025
Energy and resources10 of 34
- France · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)54th percentile since Jan 2015; highest since May 2026; 1y +0.17 pts0.6% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Carbon Intensity of Electricity (Monthly)25th percentile since Jan 2015; 1y +55.8%33.8 gCO2e/kWh2026-09-01
- France · Coal Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)record low since Jan 2015; 1y unchanged0% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Electricity Generation (Monthly)14th percentile since Jan 2015; lowest since Sep 2023; 1y −8.5%36.1 TWh2026-09-01
- France · Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)24th percentile since Jan 2015; 1y +2.25 pts4.12% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Gas Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)26th percentile since Jan 2015; 1y +2.15 pts3.18% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)record low since Jan 2015; 1y −1.77 pts5.71% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Nuclear Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)54th percentile since Jan 2015; highest since Sep 2025; 1y −1.85 pts71.8% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)95th percentile since Jan 2015; 1y +0.1 pts0.94% of generation2026-09-01
- France · Renewables Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)65th percentile since Jan 2015; lowest since Jan 2026; 1y −0.4 pts24.1% of generation2026-09-01
Conflict and geopolitics5 of 11
- France · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y −100.0%0 deaths2025
- France · Governance · WGI six-dimension meanrecord low since 1996; 1y −0.3%0.91 index2025
- France · Political Stability · WGI6th percentile since 1996; 1y +0.066-0.09 index2025
- France · Regulatory Quality · WGI9th percentile since 1996; lowest since 1998; 1y −6.2%0.99 index2025
- France · Rule of Law · WGIrecord low since 1996; 1y −2.0%0.97 index2025
Defence1
- France defence spending — % of GDP (Eurostat COFOG)63rd percentile since 1995; highest since 2020; 1y +5.6%1.9 pct of GDP2024
Aid in and out4
- France · Net ODA as % of GNI (Long Run)20th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2016; 1y −0.061 pts0.41% of GNI2025
- France · Official Development Assistance, Net, Constant Prices · US$ billions89th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2017; 1y −12.6%13.22025
- France · Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance) · US$ billions59th percentile since 2015; lowest since 2020; 1y −5.9%14.5 US$ billions2025
- France · ODA as % of GNIrecord low since 2018; 1y −0.06 pts0.42% of GNI2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: France (UN)record high since 19909,186,757 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: France (UN)record high since 199013.8% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in France (UN)record high since 199059,171 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: France (UN)3.482024
AI stance and technology10 of 12
- AI Worry Share of AI Searches · France81st percentile since Apr 2023; lowest since Aug 30, 2026; 1y +4.69 pts8.33%2026-09-20
- Share of AI Papers on arXiv with an Author in France (Monthly)10th percentile since Feb 2016; 1y −3.10 pts3.8%2026-09-01
- France · R&D Spending · % of GDP47th percentile since 1981; 1y +0.01 pts2.18% of GDP2024
- France · R&D Spending per Person · € per inhabitantrecord high since 1981; 1y +3.7%933.92024
- France · R&D Spending · % of GDP45th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2010; 1y −0.0411 pts2.18% of GDP2023
- Global Innovation Index Rank: France1y unchanged13 rank2026
- Global Innovation Index Score: France1y +1.1%54 score (0–100)2026
- AI User Share: France (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +8.70 pts49.6% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
- AI Optimism Lean · France (Pew)1y −5.00 pts25%2026
- More Concerned Than Excited About AI · France (Pew)1y +4.00 pts39%2026
Climate and the physical world10 of 12
- France CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)69th percentile since 1802; lowest since 1959; 1y −2.3%264.2 Mt CO₂2024
- France Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1802; 1y +0.7%40 Gt CO₂2024
- NO2 Pollution Hotspots: France (Sentinel-5P, monthly)44th percentile since May 2018; highest since Apr 2026; 1y +23.8%2.622026-09-01
- NO2 Pollution: France (Sentinel-5P, monthly)66th percentile since May 2018; highest since Apr 2026; 1y +27.1%1.632026-09-01
- France · Arable Land · % of landrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.08 pts31.3% of land area2024
- France · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.5%2,9332022
- France · Forest Area · % of landrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.16 pts32.9%2024
- France · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −2.4%9.49 µg/m³2020
- France · Plastic Emitted to the Ocean by Rivers · tonnes per year (2015)284 t/yr2015
- France · Share of Global River Plastic Emitted to the Ocean · % (2015)0.03% of world2015
Health and living standards10 of 20
- Births: Francerecord low since 1950; 1y −7.1%638,8912023
- Deaths: France95th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2019; 1y −6.5%616,0952023
- Fertility Rate: Francerecord low since 1950; 1y −6.9%1.642023
- Median Age: Francerecord high since 1950; 1y +0.6%41.8 years2023
- Population Aged 65 and Over: Francerecord high since 1950; 1y +0.372 pts21.7% of population2023
- Population: Francerecord high since 1950; 1y +0.2%66,438,822 people2023
- France · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.2%83 years2024
- France · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- France · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.4%0.92 index2023
- France · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of population52nd percentile since 1970; 1y unchanged0.1%2023
Sentiment and attention2
- Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?53rd percentile since Jul 2025; 1y +150.0%0.08 probability2026-10-21
- France · Search Attention61st percentile since Sep 2021; 1y −16.7%25 index2026-09-20
More about this country1 of 17
- France · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)99th percentile since Dec 1950; 1y +16.8%$401.3bn2026-07-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City