Serbia
Everything Palanor holds about Serbia, in one place: 57 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
Europe
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $100 billion (2025); record high since 1995; 1y +10.9%.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 62.4% of GDP (2025); 5th percentile since 1995; 1y +0.4 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -4.3% of GDP (2025); 92nd percentile since 1995; highest since 1999; 1y +0.26 pts.
Country Posture
What Serbia’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 2.0 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -1.4 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | 0.1 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202357Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and current account (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2022) | 3.6 | 65 |
| Budget balance (2022) | -3.1 | 44 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 6.2 | 68 |
| Current account | -2.4 | 70 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.11 | 56 |
| External debt | 65.2 | 39 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 3.9 |
| Change in inflation | -0.8 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -4.0% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | -0.32 |
| Private credit, three-year change | -3.0 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a Serbia passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Serbia itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
13.0%rank 67 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 1 at half.
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Serbia’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 62.4% of GDP, government consumption 18.5%, investment 23.4% and net exports -4.3% (exports 54.3%, imports 58.6%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Serbia
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 3.9 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 100.0 | 111.2 | 120.3 | 155.1 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 213.9 | 228.5 | 245.0 | 303.3 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 15,284 | 17,126 | 18,684 | 24,834 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -4.9 | -4.7 | -3.5 | -4.1 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 42.2 | 42.9 | 42.9 | 40.9 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 37.3 | 39.8 | 39.5 | 39.6 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -2.2 | -3.4 | -2.6 | -1.9 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -0.4 | -1.7 | -0.7 | -0.0 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Llega desde la selección de Serbia: la UC anuncia a Francisco Pérez Lázaro como su nuevo gerente deportivo
La Tercera2026-10-21neutral
- Boron One boosts Serbia project economics in updated study
MINING.COM2026-10-14positive · +boosts
- Serbia hit with stadium closure and fines over supporter misconduct reut.rs/47IMqt5
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-09neutral
- Thousands pack arena in Belgrade as Serbia's leader Vucic launches prime minister bid
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-03neutral
Headlines that name Serbia, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Serbia
Palanor’s company graph holds 8 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Serbia
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 57 in the Library.
Growth and output5
- Serbia · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1995; 1y +10.9%$100bn2025
- Beogradski region, Serbia (RS11) · At Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion · % of population1y −2.80 pts12.6% of population2025
- Region Juzne i Istocne Srbije, Serbia (RS22) · At Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion · % of population1y −1.30 pts29.6% of population2025
- Region Sumadije i Zapadne Srbije, Serbia (RS21) · At Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion · % of population1y +0.7 pts26.2% of population2025
- Region Vojvodine, Serbia (RS12) · At Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion · % of population1y −1.50 pts25.3% of population2025
Trade and capital flows1
- Serbia · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)86th percentile since 2008; 1y −3.32 pts-60.9% of GDP2025
Conflict and geopolitics2 of 6
- Serbia · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
- Serbia · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Serbia (UN)record low since 1990712,550 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Serbia (UN)record low since 199010.6% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Serbia (UN)record high since 19902,032 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Serbia (UN)-7.882024
AI stance and technology1
- AI User Share: Serbia (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +5.60 pts25.3% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
More about this country2
- Serbia · IMF Credit Outstanding · USD bn (IMF)57th percentile since Jan 2006; lowest since Nov 2022; 1y −33.3%$0.87bn2026-09-01
- Serbia · IMF Credit Outstanding, % of GDP57th percentile since 2006; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.0736 pts1.3% of GDP2025
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City