Italy
Everything Palanor holds about Italy, in one place: 295 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeEuropean UnionEuro AreaG7G20OECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $2,552 billion (2025); record high since 1960; 1y +7.1%.
- Real GDP growth: 0.54% (2025); 19th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.24 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 1.53% (2025); 18th percentile since 1960; 1y +0.55 pts.
- Unemployment: 6.39% (2025); 4th percentile since 1991; lowest since 2007; 1y −0.11 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 57.6% of GDP (2025); 13th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.01 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 1.93% of GDP (2025); 54th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.15 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 3.72% of companies (2026-10-21); 11th percentile since Dec 2021; lowest since Sep 25, 2026; 1y +0.05 pts.
Country Posture
What Italy’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 0.5 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -1.6 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.2 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202563Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 9.4 | 56 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -3.4 | 31 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 5.7 | 84 |
| Current account | 1.1 | 64 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 0.70 | 76 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 1.5 |
| Change in inflation | 0.5 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -4.3% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 0.46 |
| Private credit, three-year change (2024) | -15.7 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | -0.7 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Italy is in its cycles
Where Italy sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption99% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Declining99% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Deleveraging81% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Immature creditor80% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Manufacturing exporter97% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Building61% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Affluent99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Pre-election91% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a Italy passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Italy itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
35.4%rank 17 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 6 at half.
Recorded changes
Investment migration programs
- Investor Visa for Italy residence · OpenGovernment minimum $280,775 for one person (agent fees excluded).
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Italy’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 57.6% of GDP, government consumption 18.3%, investment 22.3% and net exports +1.9% (exports 32.2%, imports 30.3%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Italy
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.3 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 1.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 2,550 | 2,702 | 2,772 | 3,017 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 3,743 | 3,899 | 4,047 | 4,479 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 43,270 | 45,886 | 47,145 | 51,693 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 137.1 | 137.9 | 137.6 | 135.6 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 127.7 | 128.5 | 128.2 | 126.2 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.8 | -2.7 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Italy
18 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Italy on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 2.5% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
News
In the news
- Europe: Italy wine heist, France protests, and EU-China trade tensions
Fiscal strain and security concerns emerge across the continent.
Palanor Wire2026-10-11negative · -protests
- Thieves steal 30,000 bottles in Italy's largest wine heist
Thieves stole 30,000 bottles of premium wine worth about 5 million euros from a Tuscan winery.
Palanor Wire2026-10-10neutral
- Europe: Student protests erupt across France
Student unrest spreads, trade probe opens, and Italy's bank takeover hangs in balance
Palanor Wire2026-10-04negative · -protests
- Italy's law-and-order crackdowns under Meloni reut.rs/4z6ymG8
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral
- Italy's Meloni to boost police arrest powers in response to weekend riots reut.rs/4dMC5Qp
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20neutral · +boost -riots
- Today Italy’s old gender hierarchies, once tacit, are in some ways becoming more explicit. We explain why a row over women’s hemlines exposes the ongoing battle between the sexes
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-18neutral
- Italy secures EU deal to lower its electricity prices
FT Companies2026-10-16positive · +deal
- Italy prolongs Schengen suspension with Spain, talks loom reut.rs/47t0QgW
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-16neutral
- Italy's UniCredit wins ECB approval to control Germany's Commerzbank reut.rs/4s4UnlM
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-15positive · +wins
- Eni flags shutdown risk at southern Italy refinery due to steelworkers' protest reut.rs/3WtDZ2k
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-15negative · -risk -protest
- Italy's Lombardy to revise data centre law next week after application surge reut.rs/4Bdjebm
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-15positive · +surge
- No auto plants available in Italy for Chinese purchase, Italian minister says reut.rs/4dHtAGm
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-14neutral
- Southern Italy faces risk of fuel shortages as Ilva protests impact Eni refinery reut.rs/4yNP6lj
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-14negative · -risk -shortages -protests
- Giorgia Meloni is Italy’s first female prime minister, a path-breaking achievement. But as the leader of the populist-right Brothers of Italy party, she has hardly been pushing for gender equality bit.ly/4hTM87t
Photo: Simona Flavia Malpezzi/Instagram
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-13neutral
Headlines that name Italy, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Italy
Palanor’s company graph holds 450 entities headquartered here, 1 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
- Ferrari N.V.RACE · Maranello
Signals
Every series about Italy
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 295 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 74
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): Italy99th percentile since 1; highest since 2007; 1y +4.0%36,2242022
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Italy93rd percentile since 1; lowest since 2007; 1y −0.3%58,966,210 people2022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Italyrecord high since 1; 1y +3.7%2,1362022
- Italy · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1960; 1y +7.1%$2,551.6bn2025
- Italy · Real GDP Growth · % y/y19th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.24 pts0.54%2025
- Italy · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP57th percentile since 1990; highest since 2004; 1y +0.0576 pts2.07% of GDP2025
- Italy · GDP per Capita · PPP USDrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.8%62,803 usd2025
- Italy · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDP38th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.0847 pts22.6% of GDP2025
- Italy · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDP35th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.0822 pts15% of GDP2025
- Italy · Services Value Added · % of GDP46th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.159 pts64.5% of GDP2025
Prices4 of 6
- Italy Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +3.3%127.4 index2026-08-01
- Italy Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)86th percentile since Jan 2011; highest since Sep 2023; 1y +1.74 pts3.31% y/y2026-08-01
- Italy Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −3.2%80.42026-08-01
- Italy · Inflation · CPI % y/y18th percentile since 1960; 1y +0.55 pts1.53%2025
Jobs and people at work8 of 9
- Share of Job Postings Mentioning AI (Italy)98th percentile since Jan 2019; highest since Sep 18, 2026; 1y +1.51 pts4.77% of job postings2026-09-30
- Italy · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)5th percentile since Jan 1983; highest since May 2025; 1y +0.5 pts6.2% of labour force2026-08-01
- Italy Unemployment Rate (Monthly, Eurostat)8th percentile since Jan 2000; highest since May 2025; 1y +0.5 pts6.2%2026-08-01
- Italy — Avg annual hours worked per worker16th percentile since 1950; highest since 2011; 1y +0.6%1,701.4 hours/year2023-06-30
- Average annual hours worked · Italy38th percentile since 1990; highest since 2011; 1y +0.0%1,715.7 hours2025
- Italy · Female Labor Force Participation · %90th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.22 pts40.8%2025
- Italy · Male Labor Force Participation · %10th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.36 pts58.3%2025
- Italy · Unemployment Rate · %4th percentile since 1991; lowest since 2007; 1y −0.11 pts6.39%2025
Money, rates and credit4 of 5
- Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Monthly)38th percentile since Mar 1991; highest since Nov 2023; 1y +0.448 pts3.99%2026-08-01
- Italy · Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (IMF FSI)87th percentile since Apr 2005; lowest since Oct 2022; 1y −0.308 pts19.4%2025-10-01
- Italy · Bank Nonperforming Loans Ratio (IMF FSI)record low since Oct 2005; 1y −0.307 pts2.46%2025-10-01
- Italy · Bank Return on Equity (IMF FSI)94th percentile since Oct 2005; highest since Oct 2007; 1y +1.09 pts13.5%2025-10-01
Stock market and listed companies2
- Italy Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)100th percentile since Jan 1957; 1y +21.8%233.72026-09-01
- Italy Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)74th percentile since Jan 1958; lowest since Mar 2026; 1y −0.26 pts21.8% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 23
- Italy · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)10th percentile since 1973; 1y −0.9 pts7.65%2023
- Italy · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)81st percentile since 1980; 1y +0.05 pts27.6% of GDP2024
- Italy · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)20th percentile since 1973; 1y +0.47 pts9.42%2024
- Italy · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)49th percentile since 1973; highest since 2019; 1y +3.98-3.44 pct_gdp2024
- Italy · Public Social Spending: Family (% of GDP)94th percentile since 1980; 1y −0.08 pts1.43% of GDP2021
- Italy · Public Social Spending: Health and Disability (% of GDP)96th percentile since 1980; 1y −0.47 pts8.74% of GDP2021
- Italy · Public Social Spending: Old Age and Survivors (% of GDP)94th percentile since 1980; 1y −1.34 pts16.2% of GDP2021
- Italy · Public Social Spending: Other Social Policy (% of GDP)record high since 1980; 1y +0.26 pts2.04% of GDP2021
- Italy · Public Social Spending: Unemployment (% of GDP)96th percentile since 1980; 1y −1.03 pts1.46% of GDP2021
- Italy · Cyclically Adjusted Balance (IMF)43rd percentile since 1988; highest since 2019; 1y +0.391 pts-3.07% of potential GDP2025
Trade and capital flows9 of 10
- Italy · Nights at Tourist Accommodation (monthly)record high since Jan 1990; 1y +3.3%98.8 million nights2026-08-01
- Italy · Net International Investment Position (IMF)99th percentile since Jan 1999; 1y +45.3%$381.7bn2026-04-01
- Italy · Current Account · % GDP69th percentile since 1970; highest since 2021; 1y +4.5%1.15 pct_gdp2025
- Italy · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)record high since 1980; 1y +1.11 pts15.1% of GDP2025
- U.S. Goods Trade With Italy (Exports + Imports)record high since 1985; 1y +8.3%117.5 $ billions2025
- Italy's Share of U.S. Goods Trade83rd percentile since 1987; highest since 1992; 1y +0.064 pts2.1% of U.S. goods trade2025
- Italy · Share of Tourist Nights by Visitors from Abroad (annual)record high since 1990; 1y +1.85 pts56.3% of nights2025
- Italy · Tourism Intensity: Nights per Resident (annual)record high since 1990; 1y +14.9%9.082025
- Italy · International Tourist Arrivalsrecord low since 1995; 1y −59.7%38,419,000 arrivals2020
Energy and resources10 of 32
- Italy · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)13th percentile since Jan 2016; highest since May 2026; 1y +0.53 pts5.52% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Carbon Intensity of Electricity (Monthly)24th percentile since Jan 2016; highest since Jan 2026; 1y +6.7%308.3 gCO2e/kWh2026-09-01
- Italy · Coal Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)20th percentile since Jan 2016; highest since Nov 2025; 1y −0.25 pts1.32% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Electricity Generation (Monthly)68th percentile since Jan 2016; lowest since May 2026; 1y +9.8%22.9 TWh2026-09-01
- Italy · Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)31st percentile since Jan 2016; highest since Feb 2026; 1y +3.82 pts52.7% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Gas Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)47th percentile since Jan 2016; highest since Feb 2026; 1y +4.21 pts49.4% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)18th percentile since Jan 2016; lowest since Jan 2026; 1y −6.85 pts11.2% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)40th percentile since Jan 2016; 1y −0.15 pts1.95% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Other Renewables Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)7th percentile since Jan 2016; highest since May 2026; 1y −0.23 pts1.83% of generation2026-09-01
- Italy · Renewables Share of Electricity Generation (Monthly)69th percentile since Jan 2016; lowest since Feb 2026; 1y −3.81 pts47.3% of generation2026-09-01
Conflict and geopolitics5 of 11
- U.S. Active-Duty Troops in Italy (DMDC)96th percentile since Sep 2008; highest since Mar 2019; 1y +2.6%12,903 persons2026-08-31
- Italy · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean78th percentile since 1996; 1y +2.8%0.71 index2025
- Italy · Political Stability · WGI46th percentile since 1996; 1y +10.7%0.46 index2025
- Italy · Regulatory Quality · WGI20th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2020; 1y −8.0%0.6 index2025
- Italy · Rule of Law · WGI69th percentile since 1996; 1y +3.9%0.59 index2025
Defence1
- Italy defence spending — % of GDP (Eurostat COFOG)70th percentile since 1995; highest since 2021; 1y +8.3%1.3 pct of GDP2024
Aid in and out2
- Italy · Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance) · US$ billionsrecord high since 2015; 1y +6.5%7.28 US$ billions2025
- Italy · ODA as % of GNI81st percentile since 2018; highest since 2022; 1y +0.01 pts0.3% of GNI2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Italy (UN)record high since 19906,553,671 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Italy (UN)record high since 199011% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Italy (UN)81st percentile since 199050,957 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Italy (UN)7.32024
AI stance and technology7 of 8
- Italy · R&D Spending per Person · € per inhabitantrecord high since 1981; 1y +5.6%526.42024
- Italy · R&D Spending · % of GDP87th percentile since 1995; highest since 2021; 1y +0.04 pts1.41% of GDP2024
- Italy · R&D Spending · % of GDP84th percentile since 1996; 1y +0.0137 pts1.38% of GDP2023
- AI User Share: Italy (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +5.60 pts31.4% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
- AI Optimism Lean · Italy (Pew)1y +4.00 pts23.4%2026
- More Concerned Than Excited About AI · Italy (Pew)1y −1.00 pts49%2026
- More Excited Than Concerned About AI · Italy (Pew)1y +3.00 pts15%2026
Climate and the physical world10 of 12
- Italy CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)68th percentile since 1860; lowest since 1970; 1y −3.3%301.9 Mt CO₂2024
- Italy Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1860; 1y +1.2%26 Gt CO₂2024
- NO2 Pollution Hotspots: Italy (Sentinel-5P, monthly)36th percentile since May 2018; highest since May 2026; 1y +6.7%3.182026-09-01
- NO2 Pollution: Italy (Sentinel-5P, monthly)41st percentile since May 2018; highest since Apr 2026; 1y +5.1%1.762026-09-01
- Italy · Arable Land · % of land15th percentile since 1961; lowest since 2019; 1y −0.22 pts23.5% of land area2024
- Italy · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per person23rd percentile since 1961; highest since 2007; 1y +0.2%3,0932022
- Italy · Forest Area · % of landrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.04 pts31.8%2024
- Italy · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −1.5%14.3 µg/m³2020
- Italy · Plastic Emitted to the Ocean by Rivers · tonnes per year (2015)412.4 t/yr2015
- Italy · Share of Global River Plastic Emitted to the Ocean · % (2015)0.04% of world2015
Health and living standards10 of 20
- Births: Italyrecord low since 1950; 1y −3.8%384,6272023
- Deaths: Italy95th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2019; 1y −10.5%663,4482023
- Fertility Rate: Italy3rd percentile since 1950; lowest since 1996; 1y −3.4%1.22023
- Median Age: Italyrecord high since 1950; 1y +0.7%47.5 years2023
- Population Aged 65 and Over: Italyrecord high since 1950; 1y +0.29 pts24.2% of population2023
- Population: Italy79th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2007; 1y −0.2%59,499,453 people2023
- Italy · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.7%84 years2024
- Italy · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of population51st percentile since 1977; 1y +0.2 pts0.9%2023
- Italy · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Italy · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +1.1%0.92 index2023
Sentiment and attention1
- Italy · Search Attention83rd percentile since Sep 2021; 1y +3.0%69 index2026-09-20
More about this country1 of 17
- Italy · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)100th percentile since Dec 1950; highest since Feb 2026; 1y +27.0%$455.9bn2026-08-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City