Iceland
Everything Palanor holds about Iceland, in one place: 176 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeOECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $38.6 billion (2025); record high since 1960; 1y +16.2%.
- Real GDP growth: 1.28% (2025); 28th percentile since 1961; 1y +2.56 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 4.09% (2025); 34th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −1.77 pts.
- Unemployment: 3.63% (2025); 50th percentile since 1991; highest since 2022; 1y +0.03 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 49.6% of GDP (2025); 21st percentile since 1990; highest since 2022; 1y +0.52 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -2.26% of GDP (2025); 24th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2007; 1y −0.99 pts.
Country Posture
What Iceland’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 1.3 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -2.9 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.0 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.2 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202448Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by current account (down) and governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2023) | 14.9 | 30 |
| Budget balance (2023) | -1.1 | 56 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 4.8 | 55 |
| Current account | -3.4 | 41 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 1.47 | 54 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 4.1 |
| Change in inflation | -1.8 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -7.1% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 1.32 |
| Private credit, three-year change | -4.4 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | 2.3 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Iceland is in its cycles
Where Iceland sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption99% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Low stationary99% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Deleveraging76% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Credit disinvestor56% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Commodity-reliant66% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Low83% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Affluent99% · 2023
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20032025
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2021-102026-10
Passport reach
Where a Iceland passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Iceland itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
23.8%rank 38 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 3 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Iceland’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 49.6% of GDP, government consumption 26.1%, investment 26.6% and net exports -2.3% (exports 40.1%, imports 42.4%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Iceland
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 38.5 | 42.8 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 31.5 | 33.0 | 34.7 | 41.0 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 98,783 | 107,464 | 112,036 | 123,777 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -4.0 | -2.5 | -1.4 | 0.1 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 56.7 | 54.6 | 52.9 | 47.5 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 46.6 | 45.2 | 43.9 | 40.2 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -2.6 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
News
In the news
- Iceland Central Bank Holds Key Rate
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-07neutral
- Rubio Opens 4-Day NATO Tour in Iceland to Discuss Arctic Security
OilPrice.com2026-10-05neutral
Headlines that name Iceland, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Iceland
Palanor’s company graph holds 12 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
Signals
Every series about Iceland
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 176 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 41
- Iceland · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1960; 1y +16.2%$38.6bn2025
- Iceland · Real GDP Growth · % y/y28th percentile since 1961; 1y +2.56 pts1.28%2025
- Iceland · Country Strength60th percentile since 1990; 1y +7.5%66.1 index2025
- Iceland · GDP per Capita · PPP USD96th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.2%83,431 usd2025
- Iceland · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP5th percentile since 1995; 1y +0.113 pts3.65% of GDP2025
- Iceland · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDP31st percentile since 1995; 1y −0.0133 pts20.1% of GDP2025
- Iceland · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDP15th percentile since 1995; 1y −0.241 pts8.53% of GDP2025
- Iceland · Services Value Added · % of GDP95th percentile since 1995; highest since 2019; 1y +0.892 pts66.2% of GDP2025
- Iceland: GDP per Hour Worked at Purchasing-Power Parity95th percentile since 1995; 1y +1.6%80.42025
- Iceland: GDP per Person at Purchasing-Power Parity92nd percentile since 1995; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.2%68,0652025
Prices4 of 6
- Iceland Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +5.9%162.9 index2026-09-01
- Iceland Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)82nd percentile since Jan 2011; highest since Aug 2024; 1y +1.79 pts5.9% y/y2026-09-01
- Iceland Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −5.6%66.32026-09-01
- Iceland · Inflation · CPI % y/y34th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −1.77 pts4.09%2025
Jobs and people at work6 of 7
- Iceland · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)72nd percentile since Jan 2003; 1y +1.30 pts5.8% of labour force2026-08-01
- Iceland Unemployment Rate (Monthly, Eurostat)72nd percentile since Jan 2003; 1y +1.30 pts5.8%2026-08-01
- Average annual hours worked · Icelandrecord low since 1990; 1y −1.8%1,420.8 hours2025
- Iceland · Female Labor Force Participation · %29th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.24 pts70%2025
- Iceland · Male Labor Force Participation · %43rd percentile since 1990; 1y −0.22 pts79.6%2025
- Iceland · Unemployment Rate · %50th percentile since 1991; highest since 2022; 1y +0.03 pts3.63%2025
Money, rates and credit1 of 2
- Iceland · Central Bank Policy Rate (IMF)67th percentile since Dec 2001; highest since Apr 2025; 1y +0.25 pts7.75%2026-05-01
Stock market and listed companies2
- Iceland Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)72nd percentile since Jan 1993; 1y −2.7%179.72026-09-01
- Iceland Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)23rd percentile since Jan 1994; 1y −6.29 pts-2.68% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 17
- Iceland · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)49th percentile since 1972; highest since 2019; 1y +1.47-1.08 pct_gdp2023
- Iceland · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)70th percentile since 1972; 1y −0.75 pts14.7%2023
- Iceland · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)78th percentile since 1972; 1y −1.41 pts14.9%2023
- Iceland · Budget Balance · % GDP24th percentile since 1990; 1y +0.93-2.7 pct_gdp2025
- Iceland · Government Spending · % GDP51st percentile since 1990; lowest since 2019; 1y −4.5%44.9 pct_gdp2025
- Iceland · Net Interest · % GDP79th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −6.9%2.92 pct_gdp2025
- Iceland · Net Interest · % of Government Spending76th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.16 pts6.51%2025
- Iceland · Net Interest · USD bn (PPP)93rd percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −3.0%$0.98bn2025
- Iceland · Primary Balance · % GDP35th percentile since 1990; 1y +0.720.23 pct_gdp2025
- Iceland · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)90th percentile since 1990; 1y +0.59 pts19.2% of GDP2024
Trade and capital flows3 of 4
- Iceland · Current Account · % GDP33rd percentile since 1976; lowest since 2011; 1y −0.45-3.88 pct_gdp2025
- Iceland · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)96th percentile since 1986; 1y −1.11 pts45.7% of GDP2025
- Iceland · Tourism Intensity: Nights per Resident (annual)record high since 1990; 1y +3.0%25.32025
Energy and resources4 of 8
- Iceland · Household Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWh95th percentile since Jan 2012; 1y +2.8%0.21 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Iceland · Wind and Solar Share of Electricity Generation94th percentile since 2000; 1y −0.01 pts0.1% of generation2025
- Iceland · Business Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWhrecord high since Jan 2016; 1y +10.0%0.14 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Iceland · Electric Car Share of New Car Sales75th percentile since 2012; 1y +19.00 pts62% of new car sales2025
Conflict and geopolitics4 of 10
- Iceland · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean13th percentile since 1996; 1y −1.0%1.46 index2025
- Iceland · Political Stability · WGI54th percentile since 1996; highest since 2021; 1y +9.4%1.32 index2025
- Iceland · Regulatory Quality · WGI6th percentile since 1996; lowest since 1996; 1y −13.1%1.07 index2025
- Iceland · Rule of Law · WGI24th percentile since 1996; highest since 2021; 1y +0.6%1.61 index2025
Aid in and out2
- Iceland · Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance) · US$ billionsrecord high since 2015; 1y +18.2%0.13 US$ billions2025
- Iceland · ODA as % of GNI75th percentile since 2018; 1y +0.01 pts0.34% of GNI2025
Migration5 of 7
- First Residence Permits Issued to U.S. Citizens · Iceland81st percentile since 2008; 1y +5.7%3522025
- International Migrant Stock: Iceland (UN)record high since 199098,818 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Iceland (UN)record high since 199025.1% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Iceland (UN)record high since 19903,932 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Iceland (UN)19.52024
AI stance and technology2 of 4
- Global Innovation Index Rank: Iceland1y +8.3%26 rank2026
- Global Innovation Index Score: Iceland1y −1.5%46.3 score (0–100)2026
Climate and the physical world4
- Iceland · Arable Land · % of landrecord low since 1961; 1y unchanged1.2% of land area2024
- Iceland · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −2.5%445,0232022
- Iceland · Forest Area · % of landrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.01 pts0.6%2024
- Iceland · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −7.9%5.48 µg/m³2020
Health and living standards10 of 11
- Iceland · Life Expectancy at Birth · years90th percentile since 1960; highest since 2021; 1y +0.4%82.8 years2024
- Iceland · Antidepressants: Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord high since 1989; 1y +2.5%171.92025
- Iceland · Anxiolytics (Anti-Anxiety Drugs): Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord low since 1989; 1y −4.3%17.72025
- Iceland · Sleeping Pills (Hypnotics and Sedatives): Daily Doses per 1,000 People80th percentile since 1989; lowest since 2020; 1y −4.7%712025
- Iceland · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Iceland · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.8%0.97 index2023
- Iceland · Basic Drinking Water Access · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Iceland · Safely Managed Drinking Water · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Iceland · Undernourishment · % of populationrecord high since 2001; 1y unchanged2.5%2024
- Iceland · Never Physically Active Outside Work · % of people12.5% of people2022-12-31
Sentiment and attention1
- Iceland · Search Attention75th percentile since Sep 2021; 1y +6.5%33 index2026-09-20
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City