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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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Ukraine

Everything Palanor holds about Ukraine, in one place: 65 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

Europe

The latest read

Country Posture

What Ukraine’s economy is doing

Momentum

2024

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth3.2
Growth against its three-year average9.8
Change in unemployment—
Change in the employment rate—
Export volume growth11.5
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

37Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and current account (down) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)8.339
Budget balance (2024)-17.84
Reserves, months of imports5.885
Current account-13.56
Governance (WGI mean)-0.4660
External debt (2024)10110

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation12.7
Change in inflation6.2
Currency move against the dollar3.8%
Conflict deaths per million2317.7
Political stability-0.33
Private credit, three-year change-6.9
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Passport reach

Where a Ukraine passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Ukraine itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

29.1%

rank 88 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 38 destinations in full.

Work

13.5%

rank 61 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 2 at half.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Ukraine passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 29.1% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Ukraine’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 66.8% of GDP, government consumption 38.9%, investment 20.8% and net exports -26.5% (exports 25.3%, imports 51.9%).

What Ukraine's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearHouseholds: 66.8% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Ukraine

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 1.0 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%1.81.03.53.6
Inflation, average consumer prices%12.78.98.75.0
Unemployment rate% of labor force11.610.211.39.6
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn214.2229.4245.4300.3
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn690.4720.7769.4964.5
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$6,5197,0757,4638,970
Current account balance% of GDP-16.0-11.0-4.7-7.9
Government gross debt% of GDP107.1111.8110.397.2
Government overall balance% of GDP-17.6-11.3-2.9-1.0
Government primary balance% of GDP-13.6-6.30.61.9
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.4.05.13.52.9
Ukraine: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 1.8% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Ukraine: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 107% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name Ukraine

14 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Ukraine on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 42.8% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name UkraineShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)Earnings calls: 3.2% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in UkraineDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate90,345 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-03: 6 headlines, net tone -0.33Week of 2026-08-10: 2 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-17: 3 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-24: 11 headlines, net tone -0.27Week of 2026-08-31: 6 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-07: 7 headlines, net tone 0.14Week of 2026-09-14: 8 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-21: 4 headlines, net tone -0.25Week of 2026-09-28: 31 headlines, net tone -0.32Week of 2026-10-05: 61 headlines, net tone -0.18Week of 2026-10-12: 88 headlines, net tone -0.12Week of 2026-10-19: 44 headlines, net tone -0.34
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-03 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Ukraine, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Ukraine

Palanor’s company graph holds 28 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about Ukraine

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 65 in the Library.

Growth and output5

Trade and capital flows1

Energy and resources2

Conflict and geopolitics3 of 7

Migration4 of 6

AI stance and technology1

Climate and the physical world4 of 6

More about this country3

Peers

Elsewhere in Europe

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomVatican City

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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