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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

Portugal

Everything Palanor holds about Portugal, in one place: 215 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

EuropeEuropean UnionEuro AreaOECD

The latest read

Country Posture

What Portugal’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth1.9
Growth against its three-year average-2.2
Change in unemployment-0.3
Change in the employment rate-0.1
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

69Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and current account (down) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2024)5.474
Budget balance (2024)0.486
Reserves, months of imports4.772
Current account1.276
Governance (WGI mean)0.9044
External debt——

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation2.3
Change in inflation-0.1
Currency move against the dollar-4.3%
Conflict deaths per million0.0
Political stability0.70
Private credit, three-year change (2024)-21.7
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries-1.2

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where Portugal is in its cycles

Where Portugal sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    High mass consumption92% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Declining98% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Debt cycle stage

    Deleveraging84% · 2025

    Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

  • External balance stage

    Debt repayer77% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Manufacturing exporter97% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Low49% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Affluent99% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20032025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2024-042026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a Portugal passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Portugal itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

82.3%

rank 17 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 45 destinations in full.

Work

36.6%

rank 4 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 6 at half.

Live

19.1%

rank 20 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 30 destinations in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2025-04-02United Kingdom · visit: Visa-free → Online travel authorisation source
  • 2024-10-15China · visit: Visa required → Visa-free source
  • 2024-03-15United States · work: no route → Treaty visa source

Investment migration programs

  • Autorização de Residência para Investimento (ARI / Golden Visa) residence · OpenGovernment minimum $288,576 for one person, $311,981 for a family of four (agent fees excluded). 2,081 permits granted in 2024, 0.19 per 1,000 residents.

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Portugal passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 82.3% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Portugal’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 61.0% of GDP, government consumption 17.1%, investment 21.0% and net exports +0.9% (exports 43.7%, imports 42.7%).

What Portugal's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearHouseholds: 61.0% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Portugal

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%1.92.11.91.6
Inflation, average consumer prices%2.23.23.01.9
Unemployment rate% of labor force6.05.95.95.7
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn346.4375.2393.6457.9
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn541.1571.0600.0691.7
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$32,06434,81536,61842,961
Current account balance% of GDP1.20.01.20.3
Government gross debt% of GDP89.785.181.072.0
Government net debt% of GDP85.380.876.767.6
Government overall balance% of GDP0.70.0-0.0-1.3
Government primary balance% of GDP2.41.91.90.7
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.1.71.81.92.0
Portugal: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 1.9% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Portugal: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 90% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

Portugal: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 1.9% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
Portugal: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10072.3 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →
Portugal: share pricesBroad national share price index, monthly average, 2015 = 100, local currency (OECD)258 in Sep 2026 · Sep 2026
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-09-28: 28 headlines, net tone -0.11Week of 2026-10-05: 16 headlines, net tone 0.06Week of 2026-10-12: 3 headlines, net tone 0.67Week of 2026-10-19: 5 headlines, net tone 0.00
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Portugal, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Portugal

Palanor’s company graph holds 78 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about Portugal

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 215 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 53

Prices4 of 6

Jobs and people at work6 of 7

Money, rates and credit1 of 2

Stock market and listed companies2

Government and debt10 of 19

Trade and capital flows5 of 6

Energy and resources10 of 24

Conflict and geopolitics5 of 11

Aid in and out2

Migration4 of 6

AI stance and technology3 of 5

Climate and the physical world4 of 6

Health and living standards10 of 13

Sentiment and attention1

More about this country2 of 18

Peers

Elsewhere in Europe

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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