Sweden
Everything Palanor holds about Sweden, in one place: 251 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
EuropeEuropean UnionOECD
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $669 billion (2025); record high since 1960; 1y +10.6%.
- Real GDP growth: 1.54% (2025); 28th percentile since 1961; highest since 2021; 1y +0.52 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 0.68% (2025); 17th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −2.16 pts.
- Unemployment: 8.69% (2025); 79th percentile since 1991; highest since 2021; 1y +0.29 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 46% of GDP (2025); 21st percentile since 1990; highest since 2018; 1y +0.7 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 2.12% of GDP (2025); 18th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.91 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 1.53% of companies (2026-10-21); 84th percentile since Dec 2021; highest since Oct 24, 2025; 1y +0.31 pts.
Country Posture
What Sweden’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 1.5 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 0.9 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.3 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.3 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202562Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by reserves, months of imports (up) and governance (wgi mean) (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 1.1 | 90 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -0.7 | 50 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 2.2 | 39 |
| Current account | 6.8 | 86 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | 1.59 | 53 |
| External debt | — | — |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 0.7 |
| Change in inflation | -2.2 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -7.3% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 0.85 |
| Private credit, three-year change (2024) | -11.5 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | -1.8 |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Sweden is in its cycles
Where Sweden sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
High mass consumption100% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Low stationary99% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Early cycle66% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Mature creditor71% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Complex exporter78% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Low89% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Affluent99% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Post-election99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2022-102026-10
Passport reach
Where a Sweden passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Sweden itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Visit
82.2%rank 23 of 199 · +16.6 pts in a year
short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 45 destinations in full.
Work
36.5%rank 8 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 30 destinations in full, 6 at half.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Sweden’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 46.0% of GDP, government consumption 26.4%, investment 25.5% and net exports +2.1% (exports 53.2%, imports 51.1%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Sweden
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 676.5 | 745.1 | 768.4 | 917.0 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 797.0 | 844.4 | 890.1 | 1,033 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 63,368 | 69,244 | 70,894 | 82,527 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | 6.7 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.1 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 34.5 | 35.1 | 35.5 | 30.7 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 12.1 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 13.4 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -1.3 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -0.2 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -1.2 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -0.1 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Sweden
8 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Sweden on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
News
In the news
- It’s that time of year again. An economist gets a call from Sweden–and we then badger them to speak to us.
On this week’s “Money Talks” podcast, an interview with one of the winners of the 2026 Nobel prize for economics
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-16neutral
- Sweden to reject Irish EU presidency proposal on 2028-2034 budget plan reut.rs/3U12HX3
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-15neutral
- Every October, committees in Sweden and Norway name Nobel laureates in a variety of prizes related to science, literature and economics, as well as peace work. Here is a quick guide to this year’s prizes, which laureates will receive in Stockholm and Oslo in December.
The New York Times · Bluesky2026-10-04positive · +peace
Headlines that name Sweden, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Sweden
Palanor’s company graph holds 403 entities headquartered here, 3 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
- H&M HENNES & MAURITZ ABHMRZF · STOCKHOLM
- AUTOLIV INCALV · Stockholm
- ERICSSON LM TELEPHONE COERIC · Stockholm
Signals
Every series about Sweden
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 251 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 61
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): Swedenrecord high since 1300; 1y +1.9%47,1262022
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Swedenrecord high since 1; 1y +0.7%10,487,060 people2022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Swedenrecord high since 1500; 1y +2.6%494.22022
- Sweden · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1960; 1y +10.6%$669bn2025
- Sweden · Real GDP Growth · % y/y28th percentile since 1961; highest since 2021; 1y +0.52 pts1.54%2025
- Sweden · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP45th percentile since 1980; highest since 2004; 1y +0.0675 pts1.5% of GDP2025
- Sweden · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDPrecord low since 1980; 1y −0.616 pts21% of GDP2025
- Sweden · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDPrecord low since 1980; 1y −0.616 pts12.5% of GDP2025
- Sweden · Services Value Added · % of GDPrecord high since 1980; 1y +0.548 pts67% of GDP2025
- Sweden · Country Strength32nd percentile since 1990; 1y −0.1%69.7 index2025
Prices4 of 6
- Sweden Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +1.1%135 index2026-09-01
- Sweden Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)45th percentile since Jan 2011; highest since Feb 2025; 1y +0.26 pts1.15% y/y2026-09-01
- Sweden Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −1.1%77.72026-09-01
- Sweden · Inflation · CPI % y/y17th percentile since 1960; lowest since 2020; 1y −2.16 pts0.68%2025
Jobs and people at work7 of 8
- Sweden · Unemployment Rate (OECD Harmonised, Monthly)86th percentile since Jan 1983; 1y +0.2 pts8.9% of labour force2026-08-01
- Sweden Unemployment Rate (Monthly, Eurostat)86th percentile since Jan 2000; 1y −0.2 pts8.6%2026-09-01
- Sweden — Avg annual hours worked per worker25th percentile since 1950; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.3%1,431.5 hours/year2023-06-30
- Average annual hours worked · Sweden4th percentile since 1990; lowest since 1991; 1y −0.9%1,421.2 hours2025
- Sweden · Female Labor Force Participation · %88th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.14 pts61.5%2025
- Sweden · Male Labor Force Participation · %56th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2016; 1y −0.14 pts67.6%2025
- Sweden · Unemployment Rate · %79th percentile since 1991; highest since 2021; 1y +0.29 pts8.69%2025
Money, rates and credit2 of 3
- Sweden 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Monthly)42nd percentile since Dec 1986; highest since Apr 2011; 1y +0.628 pts3.19%2026-09-01
- Sveriges Riksbank Total Assets · % of Sweden GDP53rd percentile since Jul 1999; lowest since Jan 2015; 1y −3.26 pts13.7% of GDP2026-01-01
Stock market and listed companies2
- Sweden Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)100th percentile since Jan 1950; 1y +15.6%219.72026-09-01
- Sweden Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)61st percentile since Jan 1951; 1y +16.79 pts15.6% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt10 of 23
- Sweden · Budget Balance · % GDP (central govt)39th percentile since 1972; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.81-0.67 pct_gdp2024
- Sweden · Interest · % of Revenue (central govt)7th percentile since 1972; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.28 pts1.09%2024
- Sweden · Interest · % of Expense (central govt)13th percentile since 1972; highest since 2015; 1y +0.76 pts1.37%2022
- Sweden · Public Social Spending: Total (% of GDP)19th percentile since 1980; highest since 2021; 1y +0.33 pts26.1% of GDP2024
- Sweden · Public Social Spending: Family (% of GDP)31st percentile since 1980; lowest since 2008; 1y −0.22 pts3.32% of GDP2021
- Sweden · Public Social Spending: Health and Disability (% of GDP)15th percentile since 1980; 1y −0.73 pts10.2% of GDP2021
- Sweden · Public Social Spending: Old Age and Survivors (% of GDP)61st percentile since 1980; lowest since 2011; 1y −0.62 pts10.3% of GDP2021
- Sweden · Public Social Spending: Other Social Policy (% of GDP)23rd percentile since 1980; 1y +0.08 pts2.09% of GDP2021
- Sweden · Public Social Spending: Unemployment (% of GDP)20th percentile since 1980; 1y −0.13 pts0.42% of GDP2021
- Sweden · 10-Year Government Bond Yield · annual avg35th percentile since 1990; 1y +0.277 pts2.48%2025
Trade and capital flows6 of 7
- Sweden's Share of Foreign-Held U.S. Equities · %40th percentile since Sep 2011; lowest since Oct 2017; 1y −0.136 pts1.89% of foreign holdings2026-08-01
- U.S. Equities Held in Sweden · USD bn99th percentile since Sep 2011; 1y +14.6%475.1 $ billions2026-08-01
- Sweden · Net International Investment Position (IMF)record high since Jan 1999; 1y +46.0%$544.4bn2026-04-01
- Sweden · Current Account · % GDP92nd percentile since 1970; 1y −8.2%6.8 pct_gdp2025
- Sweden · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)97th percentile since 1982; 1y −0.359 pts63.7% of GDP2025
- Sweden · Tourism Intensity: Nights per Resident (annual)record high since 1990; 1y +2.0%6.22025
Energy and resources10 of 18
- Sweden · Business Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWh96th percentile since Jan 2007; highest since Jul 2022; 1y +22.2%0.15 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Sweden · Household Electricity Price (incl. taxes) · € per kWhrecord high since Jan 2007; 1y +15.4%0.31 € per kWh2026-01-01
- Sweden · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation29th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2006; 1y −0.06 pts5.86% of generation2025
- Sweden · Carbon Intensity of Electricity6th percentile since 2000; 1y +1.4%35.4 gCO2e/kWh2025
- Sweden · Coal Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y unchanged0% of generation2025
- Sweden · Electricity Generation87th percentile since 2000; 1y −1.1%170.2 TWh2025
- Sweden · Gas Share of Electricity Generation10th percentile since 2000; 1y +0.01 pts0.07% of generation2025
- Sweden · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation33rd percentile since 2000; highest since 2022; 1y +2.52 pts40.1% of generation2025
- Sweden · Nuclear Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −2.04 pts27.4% of generation2025
- Sweden · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation6th percentile since 2000; 1y +0.01 pts1.16% of generation2025
Conflict and geopolitics4 of 10
- Sweden · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean9th percentile since 1996; highest since 2022; 1y +1.7%1.59 index2025
- Sweden · Political Stability · WGI9th percentile since 1996; highest since 2022; 1y +28.7%0.85 index2025
- Sweden · Regulatory Quality · WGI13th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2000; 1y −4.0%1.57 index2025
- Sweden · Rule of Law · WGI9th percentile since 1996; 1y −0.2%1.74 index2025
Defence1
- Sweden defence spending — % of GDP (Eurostat COFOG)75th percentile since 1995; highest since 2002; 1y +11.1%2 pct of GDP2024
Aid in and out2
- Sweden · Foreign Aid (Official Development Assistance) · US$ billions69th percentile since 2018; highest since 2020; 1y +19.0%5.96 US$ billions2025
- Sweden · ODA as % of GNI19th percentile since 2018; 1y +0.06 pts0.85% of GNI2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Sweden (UN)record high since 19902,272,158 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Sweden (UN)record high since 199021.4% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Sweden (UN)record high since 199026,172 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Sweden (UN)9.92024
AI stance and technology9 of 10
- Sweden · R&D Spending per Person · € per inhabitantrecord high since 1981; 1y +1.9%1,8862024
- Sweden · R&D Spending · % of GDP87th percentile since 1993; 1y −0.11 pts3.53% of GDP2024
- Sweden · R&D Spending · % of GDP94th percentile since 1997; highest since 2001; 1y +0.127 pts3.6% of GDP2023
- Global Innovation Index Rank: Sweden1y unchanged2 rank2026
- Global Innovation Index Score: Sweden1y +1.0%63.2 score (0–100)2026
- AI User Share: Sweden (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +6.10 pts37.3% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
- AI Optimism Lean · Sweden (Pew)1y −8.20 pts33.3%2026
- More Concerned Than Excited About AI · Sweden (Pew)1y +9.00 pts40%2026
- More Excited Than Concerned About AI · Sweden (Pew)1y −2.00 pts20%2026
Climate and the physical world7
- Sweden CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)64th percentile since 1834; highest since 2021; 1y +3.8%38.1 Mt CO₂2024
- Sweden CO₂ Emissions per Person (Global Carbon Budget)57th percentile since 1834; highest since 2021; 1y +3.2%3.592024
- Sweden Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1834; 1y +0.7%5.13 Gt CO₂2024
- Sweden · Arable Land · % of landrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.02 pts6.18% of land area2024
- Sweden · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.7%16,3062022
- Sweden · Forest Area · % of landrecord low since 1990; 1y unchanged68.6%2024
- Sweden · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³record low since 1990; 1y −6.9%5.64 µg/m³2020
Health and living standards10 of 13
- Sweden · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.9%84.1 years2024
- Sweden · Access to Electricity · % of populationrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged100%2024
- Sweden · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y unchanged0.96 index2023
- Sweden · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of population88th percentile since 1975; 1y −0.5 pts0.8%2023
- Sweden · Antidepressants: Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord high since 2000; 1y +1.1%123.22025
- Sweden · Anxiolytics (Anti-Anxiety Drugs): Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord low since 2000; 1y −4.5%8.52025
- Sweden · Sleeping Pills (Hypnotics and Sedatives): Daily Doses per 1,000 Peoplerecord high since 2000; 1y +7.4%84.52025
- Sweden · Basic Drinking Water Access · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y unchanged99.8%2024
- Sweden · Safely Managed Drinking Water · % of populationrecord high since 2000; 1y unchanged99.8%2024
- Sweden · Undernourishment · % of populationrecord high since 2001; 1y unchanged2.5%2024
Sentiment and attention1
- Sweden · Search Attention75th percentile since Sep 2021; lowest since Aug 2, 2026; 1y −8.0%23 index2026-09-20
More about this country2 of 18
- USD / SEK74th percentile since Jan 2015; lowest since Sep 25, 2026; 1y +5.2%9.92 SEK per USD2026-10-16
- Sweden · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)99th percentile since Dec 1950; 1y +2.2%$73.1bn2026-09-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Europe
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AlbaniaAndorraAustriaBelarusBelgiumBosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFaroe IslandsFinlandFranceGermanyGibraltarGreeceGuernseyHungaryIcelandIrelandIsle of ManItalyJerseyKosovoLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMoldovaMonacoMontenegroNetherlandsNorth MacedoniaNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSan MarinoSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwitzerlandUkraineUnited KingdomVatican City