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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

Iran

Everything Palanor holds about Iran, in one place: 157 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

AsiaMiddle East & North AfricaBRICSMiddle East & Africa

The latest read

Country Posture

What Iran’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth-2.8
Growth against its three-year average-7.3
Change in unemployment0.2
Change in the employment rate-0.3
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator—

Resilience

2025

Withheld: 1 of 5 core inputs reported for 2025.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue—
Budget balance—
Reserves, months of imports—
Current account—
Governance (WGI mean)-1.34
External debt (2024)2.2

Pressure

2023

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation44.6
Change in inflation1.1
Currency move against the dollar0.0%
Conflict deaths per million0.5
Political stability-1.28
Private credit, three-year change—
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries—

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where Iran is in its cycles

Where Iran sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    Drive to maturity96% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Low stationary96% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

    Withheld: too little of its evidence is published and fresh.

  • Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

    Withheld: too little of its evidence is published and fresh.

  • Export structure stage

    Commodity-reliant72% · 2024

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    Acute83% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Middle-class majority67% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2021-072026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a Iran passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside Iran itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

1.4%

rank 147 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 1 destination in full.

Work

0.0%

rank 114 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2025-06-09United States · visit: Visa required → Not admitted source

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a Iran passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 1.4% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What Iran’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 53.7% of GDP, government consumption 13.3%, investment 41.8% and net exports -8.7% (exports 25.8%, imports 34.5%).

What Iran's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearTotal 100.0% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for Iran

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 1.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%-0.9-7.63.62.0
Inflation, average consumer prices%50.678.642.025.0
Unemployment rate% of labor force7.59.29.09.0
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn371.1312.0317.4362.9
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn1,8561,7731,8942,197
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$4,2633,5483,5743,925
Current account balance% of GDP3.3-1.21.22.7
Government gross debt% of GDP35.639.140.243.4
Government net debt% of GDP31.936.438.041.9
Government overall balance% of GDP-5.3-7.1-5.4-3.4
Government primary balance% of GDP-3.3-5.2-3.2-1.6
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.2.01.92.21.8
Iran: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: −0.9% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Iran: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 36% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

Iran: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: −2.8% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name Iran

7.8% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name IranShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)7.8% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in IranDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate1,268 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-03: 12 headlines, net tone -0.42Week of 2026-08-10: 3 headlines, net tone -0.33Week of 2026-08-17: 6 headlines, net tone -0.67Week of 2026-08-24: 11 headlines, net tone -0.82Week of 2026-08-31: 11 headlines, net tone -0.73Week of 2026-09-07: 10 headlines, net tone -0.50Week of 2026-09-14: 14 headlines, net tone -0.64Week of 2026-09-21: 10 headlines, net tone -0.40Week of 2026-09-28: 84 headlines, net tone -0.40Week of 2026-10-05: 144 headlines, net tone -0.49Week of 2026-10-12: 76 headlines, net tone -0.62Week of 2026-10-19: 26 headlines, net tone -0.62
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-03 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name Iran, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in Iran

Palanor’s company graph holds 3 entities headquartered here (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

Signals

Every series about Iran

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 157 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 34

Prices1 of 3

Jobs and people at work3 of 4

Government and debt5

Energy and resources10 of 16

Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12

Migration3 of 5

AI stance and technology1 of 3

Climate and the physical world8 of 10

Health and living standards10 of 14

Sentiment and attention1

Peers

Elsewhere in Asia

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AfghanistanArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainBangladeshBhutanBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusGeorgiaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIraqIsraelJapanJordanKazakhstanKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaosLebanonMacaoMalaysiaMaldivesMongoliaMyanmarNepalNorth KoreaOmanPakistanPalestinePhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSri LankaSyriaTaiwanTajikistanThailandTimor-LesteTürkiyeTurkmenistanUnited Arab EmiratesUzbekistanVietnamYemen

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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