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PalanorPalanor

India

Everything Palanor holds about India, in one place: 288 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.

AsiaAsia-PacificG20BRICS

The latest read

Country Posture

What India’s economy is doing

Momentum

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).

Inputs
Real GDP growth7.6
Growth against its three-year average0.3
Change in unemployment0.0
Change in the employment rate-0.0
Export volume growth—
OECD leading indicator-0.3

Resilience

2023

46Moderate buffers

0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers

Moved most by current account (up) and reserves, months of imports (up) since the year before.

Inputs
Interest as a share of revenue (2022)34.014
Budget balance (2022)-5.312
Reserves, months of imports8.071
Current account-0.960
Governance (WGI mean)-0.1648
External debt18.086

Pressure

2025

Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).

Inputs
Inflation2.4
Change in inflation-2.6
Currency move against the dollar4.1%
Conflict deaths per million0.4
Political stability-0.61
Private credit, three-year change5.8
Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries2.3

Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.

Country Schemas

Where India is in its cycles

Where India sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.

  • Development stage

    Take-off98% · 2025

    Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption

    20002025

  • Demographic stage

    Late expanding74% · 2025

    High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining

    20002025

  • Debt cycle stage

    Early cycle65% · 2025

    Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging

    20002025

  • External balance stage

    Mature debtor60% · 2025

    Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor

    20002025

  • Export structure stage

    Manufacturing exporter98% · 2025

    Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter

    20002025

  • Structural pressure

    High75% · 2025

    LowBuildingHighAcute

    20002025

  • Middle-class stage

    Pre-middle-class42% · 2025

    Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent

    20002025

  • Electoral cycle

    Mid-term99% · 2026-10

    Post-electionMid-termPre-election

    2020-012026-10

All Country Schemas · How they work

Passport reach

Where a India passport opens doors

The share of world GDP, outside India itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.

Visit

1.3%

rank 149 of 199

short stays without a visa arranged in advance; 1 destination in full.

Work

2.8%

rank 99 of 199

the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 3 at half.

Live

0.0%

rank 51 of 199

a right to reside by nationality; 0 destinations in full.

Recorded changes

  • 2026-10-20New Zealand · work: no route → Treaty visa source
  • 2024-09-16Australia · work: no route → Working holiday source

Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.

What a India passport opensShare of world GDP outside the holder's own country in the recorded destinations open to the passport: to visit, to work, to live. Monthly, rules in force on the first of the monthVisit: 1.3% in Oct 2026 · Oct 2026
Source: Palanor calculation from destination governments’ published visa and residence rules; GDP weights: World Bank (CC BY 4.0)Open the chart →

Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.

GDP by expenditure

What India’s economy runs on

In 2025, household spending was 56.7% of GDP, government consumption 10.8%, investment 34.6% and net exports -1.7% (exports 22.3%, imports 24.0%).

What India's economy runs onSpending by households, government and investment, and net exports, as shares of GDP each yearTotal 100.3% in 2025 · 2025
HouseholdsGovernmentInvestmentNet exports
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →

World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).

Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.

IMF World Economic Outlook

The IMF’s outlook for India

The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points (Palanor calculation).

Measure20252026 IMF f’cast2027 IMF f’cast2031 IMF f’cast
Real GDP growth%7.87.07.06.8
Inflation, average consumer prices%2.05.04.44.0
Unemployment rate% of labor force5.05.05.05.0
GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn3,9094,0604,5216,744
GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn17,35119,19321,18529,772
GDP per person, US dollarsUS$2,6702,7503,0364,389
Current account balance% of GDP-0.7-1.5-1.3-2.0
Government gross debt% of GDP84.383.181.375.1
Government overall balance% of GDP-7.4-7.5-7.2-6.7
Government primary balance% of GDP-2.2-2.2-1.8-1.7
Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc.5.15.35.44.9
India: growth, and the IMF's outlookReal GDP growth, percent a year, IMF history and projectionReal GDP growth: 7.8% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

India: government debt, and the IMF's outlookGeneral government gross debt, % of GDP, IMF history and projectionGross debt: 84% in 2025 · 2025
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026Open the chart →

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.

Charts

The headline series

India: growth and inflationReal GDP growth and consumer price inflation, percent a yearReal GDP growth: 7.6% in 2025 · 2025
Source: The World BankOpen the chart →
India: Country StrengthPalanor composite of growth, prosperity, public finances, prices, currency, external balance, governance and human development, 0 to 10055.0 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →
India: share pricesBroad national share price index, monthly average, 2015 = 100, local currency (OECD)273 in Sep 2026 · Sep 2026
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOpen the chart →

Discourse

How often S&P 500 companies name India

67 of 445 S&P 500 companies named India on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 22.8% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.

How often S&P 500 companies name IndiaShare of S&P 500 companies naming the country on earnings calls (trailing 90 days) and in 10-K risk factors (latest filing)Earnings calls: 15.1% on Oct 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026
Source: Palanor calculationOpen the chart →

Conflict

Organized violence

Organized-violence deaths in IndiaDeaths each year from state-based, non-state and one-sided violence, UCDP best estimate623 in 2025 · 2025
Source: Uppsala UniversityOpen the chart →

News

In the news

Week of 2026-08-03: 4 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-10: 6 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-08-17: 8 headlines, net tone -0.12Week of 2026-08-24: 10 headlines, net tone -0.10Week of 2026-08-31: 8 headlines, net tone 0.25Week of 2026-09-07: 6 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-14: 7 headlines, net tone -0.14Week of 2026-09-21: 3 headlines, net tone 0.00Week of 2026-09-28: 221 headlines, net tone 0.15Week of 2026-10-05: 441 headlines, net tone 0.01Week of 2026-10-12: 93 headlines, net tone -0.10Week of 2026-10-19: 34 headlines, net tone 0.09
Net tone of headlines naming the country, by week (2026-08-03 to 2026-10-19). Above the line: more positive than negative words.

Headlines that name India, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.

Company graph

Companies headquartered in India

Palanor’s company graph holds 1,614 entities headquartered here, 3 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).

  • SCHOLASTIC CORPSCHL · NEW DELHI
  • ICICI BANK LTDIBN · VADODARA
  • DR REDDYS LABORATORIES LTDRDY · HYDERABAD

Signals

Every series about India

Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 288 in the Library.

Growth and output10 of 49

Prices5 of 7

Jobs and people at work4 of 5

Money, rates and credit10 of 13

Stock market and listed companies2

Government and debt10 of 13

Trade and capital flows10 of 13

Energy and resources10 of 43

Conflict and geopolitics7 of 13

Migration4 of 7

AI stance and technology7 of 8

Climate and the physical world10 of 15

Health and living standards10 of 24

Sentiment and attention3

More about this country3 of 19

Peers

Elsewhere in Asia

Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.

AfghanistanArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainBangladeshBhutanBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusGeorgiaHong KongIndonesiaIranIraqIsraelJapanJordanKazakhstanKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaosLebanonMacaoMalaysiaMaldivesMongoliaMyanmarNepalNorth KoreaOmanPakistanPalestinePhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSri LankaSyriaTaiwanTajikistanThailandTimor-LesteTürkiyeTurkmenistanUnited Arab EmiratesUzbekistanVietnamYemen

Built 2026-10-22 from Palanor’s stored readings. Sources include the World Bank (WDI, WGI; CC BY 4.0), the OECD, UCDP (CC BY 4.0), national statistics offices and central banks, each credited on its signal, and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2026). Market prices are available inside the Terminal.

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