Timor-Leste
Everything Palanor holds about Timor-Leste, in one place: 40 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
AsiaAsia-Pacific
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $1.9 billion (2025); 85th percentile since 1990; 1y +1.6%.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 83.6% of GDP (2024); 70th percentile since 2000; highest since 2007; 1y +13.59 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -74.3% of GDP (2024); 50th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2012; 1y −30.87 pts.
Country Posture
What Timor-Leste’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 7.0 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 22.9 |
| Change in unemployment | 0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | 0.2 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202359Moderate buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by current account (down) and reserves, months of imports (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2022) | 0.1 | 66 |
| Budget balance (2022) | 1.6 | 64 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 6.6 | 79 |
| Current account | -9.3 | 17 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.28 | 65 |
| External debt | 12.6 | 50 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 0.4 |
| Change in inflation | -1.6 |
| Currency move against the dollar | 0.0% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | 0.65 |
| Private credit, three-year change | 26.4 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a Timor-Leste passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Timor-Leste itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
0.0%rank 114 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Timor-Leste’s economy runs on
In 2024, household spending was 83.6% of GDP, government consumption 60.6%, investment 30.1% and net exports -74.3% (exports 10.6%, imports 84.9%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Timor-Leste
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF cut its growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 7.1 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 9.9 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 1,464 | 1,520 | 1,602 | 1,933 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -35.8 | -38.5 | -38.4 | -37.8 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 13.3 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 15.3 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -46.2 | -55.9 | -54.0 | -51.6 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -45.8 | -55.5 | -53.7 | -51.4 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
News
In the news
- Singapore pollution spikes, East Timor shuts schools as Indonesia wildfire haze intensifies reut.rs/4zrA2cQ
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-14neutral
Headlines that name Timor-Leste, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Signals
Every series about Timor-Leste
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 40 in the Library.
Growth and output1
- Timor-Leste · GDP · USD bn (current)85th percentile since 1990; 1y +1.6%$1.9bn2025
Trade and capital flows1
- Timor-Leste · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)50th percentile since 2007; 1y −72.49 pts937.3% of GDP2025
Migration1 of 3
- U.S.-Born People Living in Timor-Leste (UN)record low since 199056 people2024
Climate and the physical world2
Peers
Elsewhere in Asia
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
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