Tajikistan
Everything Palanor holds about Tajikistan, in one place: 46 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
Asia
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $17.7 billion (2025); record high since 1990; 1y +22.4%.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 92.7% of GDP (2024); 73rd percentile since 1993; highest since 2014; 1y +3.08 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: -36.7% of GDP (2024); 23rd percentile since 1993; lowest since 2013; 1y −5.41 pts.
Country Posture
What Tajikistan’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 8.4 |
| Growth against its three-year average | 0.2 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | -0.0 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
202574Deep buffers
0 = thin buffers · 100 = deep buffers
Moved most by governance (wgi mean) (down) and current account (up) since the year before.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue (2024) | 2.9 | 83 |
| Budget balance (2024) | -0.2 | 78 |
| Reserves, months of imports | 5.7 | 74 |
| Current account | 17.1 | 97 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -1.00 | 50 |
| External debt (2024) | 37.4 | 77 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 3.4 |
| Change in inflation | -0.1 |
| Currency move against the dollar | -7.5% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.0 |
| Political stability | -0.30 |
| Private credit, three-year change | — |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Passport reach
Where a Tajikistan passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Tajikistan itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
0.0%rank 114 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full.
Recorded changes
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Tajikistan’s economy runs on
In 2024, household spending was 92.7% of GDP, government consumption 11.3%, investment 32.4% and net exports -36.7% (exports 11.2%, imports 47.9%).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Tajikistan
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 1.3 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 8.4 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 5.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 17.5 | 21.1 | 23.0 | 31.1 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 63.9 | 70.8 | 78.0 | 105.4 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 1,693 | 2,005 | 2,154 | 2,740 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | 17.2 | 8.2 | 3.5 | -1.8 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 18.6 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 22.2 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | 0.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | 1.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.6 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Wary of instability, China calls for deeper security cooperation with Tajikistan reut.rs/4yWrnzf
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-19neutral
- India sells air defense missiles to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan in Central Asia push
Defense News2026-10-12neutral
- Iranian Oil Starts Flowing to Tajikistan Despite U.S. Sanctions Risk
OilPrice.com2026-10-02negative · -sanctions -risk
- Asian Games 2026: Sujeet Kalkal wins men's freestyle 65kg wrestling gold, beats Tajikistan's Kudiev 10-9
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-02positive · +wins +beats
- Tajikistan's Rogun Hydropower Project: All about the dam set to become the world's tallest
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-01neutral
Headlines that name Tajikistan, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Signals
Every series about Tajikistan
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 46 in the Library.
Growth and output1
- Tajikistan · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1990; 1y +22.4%$17.7bn2025
Trade and capital flows1
- Tajikistan · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)record high since 2010; 1y +14.04 pts-2.83% of GDP2025
Conflict and geopolitics2 of 6
- Tajikistan · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
- Tajikistan · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)record low since 1989; 1y unchanged0 deaths2025
Migration1 of 3
- U.S.-Born People Living in Tajikistan (UN)25th percentile since 1990274 people2024
AI stance and technology1
- AI User Share: Tajikistan (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +1.20 pts6.3% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
More about this country2
- Tajikistan · IMF Credit Outstanding · USD bn (IMF)72nd percentile since May 1996; 1y −20.1%$0.15bn2026-09-01
- Tajikistan · IMF Credit Outstanding, % of GDP15th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2019; 1y −0.28 pts0.98% of GDP2025
Peers
Elsewhere in Asia
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AfghanistanArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainBangladeshBhutanBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusGeorgiaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaIranIraqIsraelJapanJordanKazakhstanKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaosLebanonMacaoMalaysiaMaldivesMongoliaMyanmarNepalNorth KoreaOmanPakistanPalestinePhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSri LankaSyriaTaiwanThailandTimor-LesteTürkiyeTurkmenistanUnited Arab EmiratesUzbekistanVietnamYemen