Indonesia
Everything Palanor holds about Indonesia, in one place: 222 public signals, what its economy runs on, how often America’s largest companies name it, the news that names it, and Country Posture. Every figure is computed from stored readings and carries its source and date.
AsiaAsia-PacificG20BRICS
The latest read
- GDP in current U.S. dollars: $1,446 billion (2025); record high since 1967; 1y +3.5%.
- Real GDP growth: 5.11% (2025); 45th percentile since 1961; highest since 2022; 1y +0.08 pts.
- Consumer price inflation: 1.91% (2025); 2nd percentile since 1960; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.27 pts.
- Unemployment: 3.24% (2025); 10th percentile since 1991; lowest since 1993; 1y −0.06 pts.
- Household consumption, share of GDP: 55.2% of GDP (2025); 7th percentile since 1990; 1y −0.17 pts.
- Net exports, share of GDP: 2.3% of GDP (2025); 54th percentile since 1990; highest since 2022; 1y +0.49 pts.
- S&P 500 companies naming it on earnings calls: 2.63% of companies (2026-10-21); 59th percentile since Dec 2021; highest since Jul 24, 2026; 1y +0.39 pts.
Country Posture
What Indonesia’s economy is doing
Momentum
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624); 2010–2022: AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641).
Inputs
| Real GDP growth | 5.1 |
| Growth against its three-year average | -0.0 |
| Change in unemployment | -0.1 |
| Change in the employment rate | 0.1 |
| Export volume growth | — |
| OECD leading indicator | — |
Resilience
2025Withheld: 3 of 5 core inputs reported for 2025.
Inputs
| Interest as a share of revenue | — |
| Budget balance | — |
| Reserves, months of imports | 5.5 |
| Current account | -0.1 |
| Governance (WGI mean) | -0.22 |
| External debt (2024) | 31.0 |
Pressure
2025Inputs only. Did not pass the pre-registered back-test: 1996–2009: AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672).
Inputs
| Inflation | 1.9 |
| Change in inflation | -0.3 |
| Currency move against the dollar | 3.9% |
| Conflict deaths per million | 0.5 |
| Political stability | -0.74 |
| Private credit, three-year change | 1.0 |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries | — |
Posture describes what an economy is doing; it is not a rating and never ranks countries. Each input is read against the country’s own history and against every other economy that year. An axis shows a score only after passing a back-test fixed before any result was computed. Method and back-test.
Country Schemas
Where Indonesia is in its cycles
Where Indonesia sits in eight long cycles, each read from published statistics against a method fixed before any reading was computed. A stage describes; it is not a rating, and no stage is better or worse than another.
- Development stage
Take-off62% · 2025
Pre-take-offTake-offDrive to maturityHigh mass consumption20002025
- Demographic stage
Late expanding65% · 2025
High stationaryEarly expandingLate expandingLow stationaryDeclining20002025
- Debt cycle stage
Early cycle92% · 2025
Early cycleLeveragingLate cycleDeleveraging20002025
- External balance stage
Debt repayer58% · 2025
Immature debtorMature debtorDebt repayerImmature creditorMature creditorCredit disinvestor20002025
- Export structure stage
Diversifying89% · 2025
Commodity-reliantDiversifyingManufacturing exporterComplex exporter20002025
- Structural pressure
Building61% · 2025
LowBuildingHighAcute20002025
- Middle-class stage
Emerging middle class98% · 2025
Pre-middle-classEmerging middle classMiddle-class majorityAffluent20002025
- Electoral cycle
Mid-term99% · 2026-10
Post-electionMid-termPre-election2020-012026-10
Passport reach
Where a Indonesia passport opens doors
The share of world GDP, outside Indonesia itself, in the economies whose published rules let a holder of this passport in, as of October 2026. Palanor records the rules of destinations holding 88% of world GDP, from each government’s own list, and weights them by World Bank GDP for 2025. Rank is among 199 passports.
Work
1.2%rank 106 of 199
the right to work (free movement in full; treaty and working-holiday routes at half); 0 destinations in full, 2 at half.
Reach is shown here and not weighted into Country Strength: it rewards membership of a free-movement area or a treaty more than the strength of an economy. Entry is always at the border officer’s discretion, and conditions (length of stay, fees, age limits) vary. Method, sources and the full ranking: Passports and citizenship.
Palanor calculation from each destination government's published rules; GDP weights from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0), one year for the whole line, so it moves only when a list changes.
GDP by expenditure
What Indonesia’s economy runs on
In 2025, household spending was 55.2% of GDP, government consumption 7.5%, investment 30.6% and net exports +2.3% (exports 22.9%, imports 20.5%). In 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 the parts miss 100 by more than three points (the statistical discrepancy in Indonesia’s national accounts).
World Bank national accounts. The parts can miss 100 by a few points (the statistical discrepancy).
Same World Bank definition for every country, so the shares compare directly: What each economy runs on.
IMF World Economic Outlook
The IMF’s outlook for Indonesia
The latest year before the October 2026 edition (often still an IMF estimate) and the IMF’s own projections. These are the IMF’s published forecasts, shown as published; Palanor does not project them further. Since the previous edition the IMF raised its growth forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points (Palanor calculation).
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 IMF f’cast | 2027 IMF f’cast | 2031 IMF f’cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices% | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment rate% of labor force | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| GDP, current US dollarsUS$ bn | 1,446 | 1,480 | 1,609 | 2,228 |
| GDP at purchasing-power parityintl $ bn | 5,045 | 5,483 | 5,944 | 7,853 |
| GDP per person, US dollarsUS$ | 5,078 | 5,153 | 5,550 | 7,433 |
| Current account balance% of GDP | -0.1 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -0.6 |
| Government gross debt% of GDP | 40.9 | 41.7 | 41.6 | 41.6 |
| Government net debt% of GDP | 38.5 | 39.5 | 39.6 | 40.2 |
| Government overall balance% of GDP | -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.8 |
| Government primary balance% of GDP | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| Government net interest paid% of GDP · Palanor calc. | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (edition on the projection). Dashed: the IMF's published projection.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026. Provided by the IMF “as is” and free of charge from the IMF; the IMF does not endorse Palanor. Net interest paid is a Palanor calculation: the IMF's primary balance minus its overall balance.
Charts
The headline series
Discourse
How often S&P 500 companies name Indonesia
12 of 445 S&P 500 companies named Indonesia on an earnings call in the 90 days to 2026-10-21. 2.5% list it in the risk factors of their latest 10-K. Names only, counted by fixed rules set before any document was read; a mention says the country came up, not why.
Conflict
Organized violence
News
In the news
- Indonesia fires send haze to Singapore amid criticism
Haze from Indonesian forest fires blankets Singapore as Prime Minister Wong warns of action and Indonesian officials blame peatland degradation.
Palanor Wire2026-10-16neutral
- Three regulatory friction points across three continents
Indonesia's mining dispute, Peru's election result, and Australia's social-media legislation show governments reasserting control over investment, platforms, and extraction timelines.
Palanor Wire2026-07-04neutral
- “Secularism will come to us too.” Flores, an island in Indonesia, has become a wellspring of Catholic priests. Ideas of “individualism and freedom”, says one trainee priest, could threaten that
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-22neutral
- Approval ratings for Indonesia’s president have declined at record levels. Yet those who disapprove of his performance mostly cite higher prices, rather than his heavy-handed approach to politics
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-22neutral · -declined +record
- Turkey, Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan ink defense cooperation MoU
Breaking Defense2026-10-21neutral
- Australia marks missile, cyber ‘firsts’ in exercise with Indonesia
Breaking Defense2026-10-21neutral
- Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, Indonesia sign defence cooperation accord, Ankara says reut.rs/4iwbmKt
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-21positive · +accord
- Indonesia’s unpopular president could double down on the expensive populist programmes that have become his hallmark. Or he might crack down on dissent and political opposition
The Economist · Bluesky2026-10-21neutral
- Feared extinct, Bangka slow loris primate rediscovered in Indonesia reut.rs/3U6PrAq
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20negative · -slow
- Wildfire in Indonesia’s Mount Bromo National Park kills 4 firefighters
Mongabay2026-10-20negative · -kills
- Indonesia to Remove Concentrated Stocks from Index Amid MSCI Concerns
Marketaux (financial news API)2026-10-20neutral
- Indonesia to deploy more than 9,000 security officers at protests marking Prabowo's two years in power reut.rs/4ifXcMy
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-20negative · -protests
- Bank Indonesia faces mounting pressure to hike after MSCI threat fuels market rout
CNBC · Bluesky2026-10-20negative · -threat
- Bank Indonesia narrowly expected to hold interest rates despite market turmoil reut.rs/3VHaWs5
Reuters · Bluesky2026-10-19negative · -turmoil
Headlines that name Indonesia, matched by name with fixed rules (a wrong match is worse than a missing one). Tone is read from each headline’s own words; no model reads or summarizes an article, and other publishers’ stories link out.
Company graph
Companies headquartered in Indonesia
Palanor’s company graph holds 86 entities headquartered here, 1 with a listed ticker (GLEIF headquarters address, else legal address).
- PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk/ADRPBNNF · New York
Signals
Every series about Indonesia
Grouped by theme, the most-read first. All 222 in the Library.
Growth and output10 of 37
- Population, Historical (Maddison): Indonesiarecord high since 1; 1y +0.6%273,409,140 people2022
- GDP per Person, Historical (Maddison): Indonesiarecord high since 1815; 1y +4.6%12,8022022
- GDP, Historical (Maddison): Indonesiarecord high since 1820; 1y +5.3%3,500.12022
- Indonesia · Real GDP Growth · % y/y45th percentile since 1961; highest since 2022; 1y +0.08 pts5.11%2025
- Indonesia · GDP · USD bn (current)record high since 1967; 1y +3.5%$1,445.6bn2025
- Indonesia · Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Value Added · % of GDP15th percentile since 1983; highest since 2021; 1y +0.49 pts13.1% of GDP2025
- Indonesia · Industry (incl. Construction) Value Added · % of GDP15th percentile since 1983; lowest since 2020; 1y −0.611 pts38.7% of GDP2025
- Indonesia · Manufacturing Value Added · % of GDP24th percentile since 1983; highest since 2021; 1y +0.0811 pts19.1% of GDP2025
- Indonesia · Services Value Added · % of GDP94th percentile since 1983; highest since 2020; 1y +0.171 pts43.9% of GDP2025
- Indonesia · Country Strength53rd percentile since 1990; lowest since 2021; 1y −4.4%52.3 index2025
Prices4 of 6
- Indonesia Consumer Price Index (OECD)record high since Jan 2010; 1y +3.3%138.2 index2026-09-01
- Indonesia Inflation Rate (CPI, % y/y, OECD)44th percentile since Jan 2011; 1y +0.63 pts3.28% y/y2026-09-01
- Indonesia Purchasing Power Since 2019 (100 = January 2019)record low since Jan 2019; 1y −3.2%81.62026-09-01
- Indonesia · Inflation · CPI % y/y2nd percentile since 1960; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.27 pts1.91%2025
Jobs and people at work4 of 5
- Indonesia — Avg annual hours worked per worker60th percentile since 1970; highest since 2019; 1y +0.1%1,958.5 hours/year2023-06-30
- Indonesia · Female Labor Force Participation · %96th percentile since 1990; highest since 2019; 1y +0.13 pts53.7%2025
- Indonesia · Male Labor Force Participation · %24th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.06 pts82.3%2025
- Indonesia · Unemployment Rate · %10th percentile since 1991; lowest since 1993; 1y −0.06 pts3.24%2025
Money, rates and credit7 of 8
- Indonesia · Central Bank Policy Rate (IMF)24th percentile since Jan 1990; 1y +0.5 pts5.75%2026-07-01
- Indonesia Credit to the Private Non-Financial Sector (Local Currency)record high since Jan 1976; 1y +8.5%9,692,6872026-01-01
- Bank Indonesia Total Assets · % of Indonesia GDP59th percentile since Oct 2001; lowest since Jul 2024; 1y −1.49 pts19.1% of GDP2026-01-01
- Indonesia · Bank Nonperforming Loans Ratio (IMF FSI)23rd percentile since Apr 2011; 1y −0.0205 pts1.99%2026-01-01
- Indonesia · Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (IMF FSI)77th percentile since Apr 2011; lowest since Jan 2023; 1y −0.0723 pts23.7%2026-01-01
- Indonesia · Bank Return on Equity (IMF FSI)70th percentile since Apr 2011; 1y +1.55 pts16.8%2026-01-01
- Indonesia Private Credit, Index 2015 = 100record high since 2015; 1y +10.0%1942025
Stock market and listed companies2
- Indonesia Share Prices (OECD, 2015 = 100)82nd percentile since Jul 1997; highest since May 2026; 1y −18.7%131.42026-09-01
- Indonesia Share Prices, Change Over a Year (OECD)9th percentile since Jul 1998; lowest since Sep 2020; 1y −21.09 pts-18.7% y/y2026-09-01
Government and debt9 of 11
- Indonesia · Government Debt · % GDP71st percentile since 2000; highest since 2021; 1y +0.6%40.4 pct_gdp2025
- Indonesia · Budget Balance · % GDP10th percentile since 2001; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.61-2.91 pct_gdp2025
- Indonesia · Cyclically Adjusted Balance (IMF)11th percentile since 2004; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.662 pts-2.89% of potential GDP2025
- Indonesia · Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (IMF)30th percentile since 2004; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.706 pts-0.73% of potential GDP2025
- Indonesia · Government Spending · % GDP47th percentile since 2010; highest since 2022; 1y +2.3%15.5 pct_gdp2025
- Indonesia · Net Interest · % GDPrecord high since 2014; 1y +8.5%2.39 pct_gdp2025
- Indonesia · Net Interest · % of Government Spendingrecord high since 2014; 1y +0.88 pts15.4%2025
- Indonesia · Net Interest · USD bn (PPP)record high since 2014; 1y +17.3%$120.7bn2025
- Indonesia · Primary Balance · % GDP54th percentile since 2014; lowest since 2021; 1y −0.42-0.51 pct_gdp2025
Trade and capital flows3 of 4
- Indonesia · Net International Investment Position (IMF)record high since Jan 2014; 1y +46.48$-197.4bn2026-04-01
- Indonesia · Current Account · % GDP63rd percentile since 1981; highest since 2022; 1y +0.52-0.09 pct_gdp2025
- Indonesia · Net International Investment Position, % of GDP (IMF)94th percentile since 2001; 1y −0.407 pts-18% of GDP2025
Energy and resources10 of 26
- Indonesia · Bioenergy Share of Electricity Generation17th percentile since 2000; highest since 2021; 1y +0.77 pts5.34% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Carbon Intensity of Electricity90th percentile since 2000; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.7%705.3 gCO2e/kWh2025
- Indonesia · Coal Share of Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +0.96 pts69.4% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +4.1%528.2 TWh2025
- Indonesia · Gas Share of Electricity Generationrecord low since 2000; 1y −2.52 pts11.6% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Hydro Share of Electricity Generation10th percentile since 2000; highest since 2022; 1y +0.15 pts6.73% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Hydro, Bioenergy and Other Renewables Share of Electricity Generation10th percentile since 2000; highest since 2022; 1y +0.98 pts15.4% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Other Fossil Fuels Share of Electricity Generation17th percentile since 2000; highest since 2020; 1y +0.57 pts3.2% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Other Renewables Share of Electricity Generation17th percentile since 2000; 1y +0.05 pts3.36% of generation2025
- Indonesia · Solar Share of Electricity Generationrecord high since 2000; 1y +0.02 pts0.3% of generation2025
Conflict and geopolitics6 of 12
- Indonesia · Organized-Violence Deaths (UCDP, annual)72nd percentile since 1989; highest since 2005; 1y +71.3%137 deaths2025
- Indonesia · State-Based Conflict Deaths (UCDP, annual)80th percentile since 1989; highest since 2005; 1y +82.5%104 deaths2025
- Indonesia · Governance · WGI six-dimension mean61st percentile since 1996; lowest since 2015; 1y −0.027-0.22 index2025
- Indonesia · Political Stability · WGI46th percentile since 1996; lowest since 2022; 1y −0.127-0.74 index2025
- Indonesia · Regulatory Quality · WGI83rd percentile since 1996; 1y +16.5%0.11 index2025
- Indonesia · Rule of Law · WGI72nd percentile since 1996; lowest since 2017; 1y −0.042-0.26 index2025
Migration4 of 6
- International Migrant Stock: Indonesia (UN)record high since 1990445,726 people2024
- International Migrants as a Share of Population: Indonesia (UN)record high since 19900.16% of population2024
- U.S.-Born People Living in Indonesia (UN)19th percentile since 19901,917 people2024
- Change in Migrant Share of Population Since 2000: Indonesia (UN)0.022024
AI stance and technology4 of 5
- AI User Share: Indonesia (Microsoft AI Diffusion)1y +3.10 pts14.8% of people aged 15-642026-06-30
- AI Optimism Lean · Indonesia (Pew)1y −5.90 pts24.5%2026
- More Concerned Than Excited About AI · Indonesia (Pew)1y +5.00 pts37%2026
- More Excited Than Concerned About AI · Indonesia (Pew)1y −2.00 pts12%2026
Climate and the physical world10
- Indonesia CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1889; 1y +6.5%812.2 Mt CO₂2024
- Indonesia Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (Global Carbon Budget)record high since 1889; 1y +4.9%17.4 Gt CO₂2024
- NO2 Pollution Hotspots: Indonesia (Sentinel-5P, monthly)record high since May 2018; 1y +49.4%2.012026-09-01
- NO2 Pollution: Indonesia (Sentinel-5P, monthly)record high since May 2018; 1y +45.9%0.792026-09-01
- Indonesia · Arable Land · % of land26th percentile since 1961; lowest since 1976; 1y −0.05 pts9.35% of land area2024
- Indonesia · Renewable Freshwater · m³ per personrecord low since 1961; 1y −0.7%7,2402022
- Indonesia · Forest Area · % of land37th percentile since 1990; highest since 2020; 1y +0.04 pts50.7%2024
- Indonesia · PM2.5 Exposure · µg/m³7th percentile since 1990; lowest since 2017; 1y −8.2%17.5 µg/m³2020
- Indonesia · Plastic Emitted to the Ocean by Rivers · tonnes per year (2015)55,211 t/yr2015
- Indonesia · Share of Global River Plastic Emitted to the Ocean · % (2015)5.49% of world2015
Health and living standards10 of 15
- Births: Indonesia24th percentile since 1950; lowest since 1966; 1y −0.8%4,482,3592023
- Deaths: Indonesia97th percentile since 1950; 1y +1.4%2,117,7062023
- Fertility Rate: Indonesiarecord low since 1950; 1y −1.0%2.132023
- Median Age: Indonesiarecord high since 1950; 1y +0.9%29.8 years2023
- Population Aged 65 and Over: Indonesiarecord high since 1950; 1y +0.224 pts7.05% of population2023
- Population: Indonesiarecord high since 1950; 1y +0.8%281,190,067 people2023
- Indonesia · Life Expectancy at Birth · yearsrecord high since 1960; 1y +0.2%71.3 years2024
- Indonesia · Access to Electricity · % of population96th percentile since 1991; 1y +0.5 pts99.9%2024
- Indonesia · Human Development Index · UNDPrecord high since 1990; 1y +0.3%0.73 index2023
- Indonesia · Extreme Poverty ($3.00 a day) · % of populationrecord low since 1984; 1y −1.70 pts3.7%2025
Sentiment and attention1
- Indonesia · Search Attention36th percentile since Sep 2021; 1y −28.0%59 index2026-09-20
More about this country2 of 18
- Indonesia · Exchange Rate per US Dollar (IMF)100th percentile since Jan 1967; 1y +9.4%17,849 per USD2026-08-01
- Indonesia · Total Reserves incl. Gold (IMF)97th percentile since Dec 1950; highest since Mar 2026; 1y −2.6%$146.8bn2026-08-01
Peers
Elsewhere in Asia
Alphabetical. Palanor does not rank countries.
AfghanistanArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainBangladeshBhutanBruneiCambodiaChinaCyprusGeorgiaHong KongIndiaIranIraqIsraelJapanJordanKazakhstanKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaosLebanonMacaoMalaysiaMaldivesMongoliaMyanmarNepalNorth KoreaOmanPakistanPalestinePhilippinesQatarSaudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth KoreaSri LankaSyriaTaiwanTajikistanThailandTimor-LesteTürkiyeTurkmenistanUnited Arab EmiratesUzbekistanVietnamYemen